Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Wisconsin
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin's governor race: David Crowley (Democrat) leads at 80.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 5 of 8 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | David Crowley 80.5% | Tom Tiffany 18.5% | Likely Democrat | $703.1K | race page |
| House WI-01 | Mitchell Berman 34.5% | Bryan Steil 62.5% | Lean Republican | $14.1K | race page |
| House WI-02 | Mark Pocan 98.7% | Republican 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $103.2K | race page |
| House WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke 73% | Derrick Van Orden 26% | Lean Democrat | $7.7K | race page |
| House WI-04 | Gwen Moore 96.5% | Tim Rogers 1.4% | Safe Democrat | $37.0K | race page |
| House WI-05 | Andrew Beck 3.6% | Scott Fitzgerald 96.2% | Safe Republican | $59.4K | race page |
| House WI-06 | Brad Smith 6.5% | Glenn Grothman 92.5% | Likely Republican | $37.9K | race page |
| House WI-07 | Fred Clark 5.5% | Michael Alfonso 94.5% | Likely Republican | $51.2K | race page |
| House WI-08 | Rick Crosson 10.5% | Tony Wied 87.5% | Likely Republican | $26.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 79.5% / Republican 21.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Wisconsin 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/wisconsin/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Wisconsin in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin's governor race: David Crowley (Democrat) leads at 80.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 5 of 8 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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