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Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:27 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for the November 3, 2026 midterms: Democrats 92.5% to win the House; Democrats 65.5% to win the Senate. The most likely balance of power is Democrats Sweep (65.5%). Toss-ups (no one priced at 60% or more): 2 Senate races, 4 House districts and 2 governor races.
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 65.5% |
| D Senate, R House | 1.1% |
| R Senate, D House | 26.5% |
| Republicans Sweep | 7.5% |
Democratic Party 65.5% · Republican Party 34.5%. Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 Senate forecast.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Josh Turek 42.5% | Ashley Hinson 57.5% | Toss-up |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 58.5% | Susan Collins 41.5% | Toss-up |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown 61.5% | Jon Husted 38.5% | Lean Democrat |
| Texas | James Talarico 64.5% | Ken Paxton 35.5% | Lean Democrat |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton 33% | Roger Marshall 67.5% | Lean Republican |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 73.5% · Sen. Dan Sullivan 27.5% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Mary Peltola) | |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 73.5% | Mike Rogers 26.5% | Lean Democrat |
| Nebraska | Democrat 0.1% | Pete Ricketts 73.5% | Lean Republican |
Democratic Party 92.5% · Republican Party 7.5%. Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 House forecast.
| District | Democrat | Republican | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor 50% | Rob Wittman 49% | Toss-up |
| MI-04 | Sean McCann 48.5% | Bill Huizenga 52.5% | Toss-up |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya 53.5% | Casey Askar 44.5% | Toss-up |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James 53.5% | Joe Mitchell 46.5% | Toss-up |
| PA-01 | Bob Harvie 37.5% | Brian Fitzpatrick 60% | Lean Republican |
| TX-35 | Johnny Garcia 61% | Carlos De La Cruz 40% | Lean Democrat |
| MI-07 | William Lawrence 61.5% | Tom Barrett 38.5% | Lean Democrat |
| NC-01 | Don Davis 61.5% | Laurie Buckhout 36.5% | Lean Democrat |
| ME-02 | Matthew Dunlap 37% | Paul LePage 62.5% | Lean Republican |
| TX-23 | Katy Padilla Stout 38.5% | Brandon Herrera 62.5% | Lean Republican |
| WI-01 | Mitchell Berman 34.5% | Bryan Steil 62.5% | Lean Republican |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley 63.5% | Mike Lawler 36.5% | Lean Democrat |
Closest races right now; every race is in the 2026 governor forecast.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms 48.5% | Rick Jackson 50.5% | Toss-up |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford 55.5% | Joe Lombardo 44.5% | Toss-up |
| Ohio | Amy Acton 66.5% | Vivek Ramaswamy 32.5% | Lean Democrat |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa 27.5% | Greg Abbott 73% | Lean Republican |
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher 25.5% | Ty Masterson 73.5% | Lean Republican |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5% · Bernadette Wilson 21% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek 75.5% | Christine Drazan 23.5% | Lean Democrat |
| Florida | David Jolly 23.5% | Byron Donalds 76.5% | Lean Republican |
Turn a poll lead into odds: poll margin to win probability calculator.
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Every race: Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast · 2026 elections by state · Senate control on Polymarket vs Kalshi
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Polymarket View, “2026 midterm election forecast from Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/midterm-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for the November 3, 2026 midterms: Democrats 92.5% to win the House; Democrats 65.5% to win the Senate. The most likely balance of power is Democrats Sweep (65.5%). Toss-ups (no one priced at 60% or more): 2 Senate races, 4 House districts and 2 governor races.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The markets settle when results are certified under each market's rules, which can take longer than election night.
Senate: Iowa, Maine; House: VA-01, MI-04, FL-22, IA-02; Governor: Georgia, Nevada.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls or a model.
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.