Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Hawaii
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Hawaii in the 2026 midterms. Hawaii's governor race: Josh Green (Democrat) leads at 98.2% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Josh Green 98.2% | Gary Cordery 0.9% | Safe Democrat | $16.4K | race page |
| House HI-01 | Ed Case 95.8% | Adriel Lam 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $41.2K | race page |
| House HI-02 | Jill Tokuda 95.5% | Brenton Awa 4.4% | Safe Democrat | $69.2K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 97.4% / Republican 2.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Hawaii 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/hawaii/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Hawaii in the 2026 midterms. Hawaii's governor race: Josh Green (Democrat) leads at 98.2% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.