Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Minnesota
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Peggy Flanagan 88.5% | Michele Tafoya 11.5% | Likely Democrat | $199.1K | race page |
| Governor | Amy Klobuchar 95.5% | Lisa Demuth 5.1% | Safe Democrat | $87.9K | race page |
| House MN-01 | Jake Johnson 22.5% | Brad Finstad 75.5% | Lean Republican | $48.1K | race page |
| House MN-02 | Matt Little 91.8% | Eric Pratt 3.6% | Likely Democrat | $59.3K | race page |
| House MN-03 | Kelly Morrison 94.5% | Tyler Bass 2.5% | Likely Democrat | $25.2K | race page |
| House MN-04 | Betty McCollum 96.5% | Paul Wikstrom 3.6% | Safe Democrat | $28.1K | race page |
| House MN-05 | Ilhan Omar 98.6% | John Nagel 1.2% | Safe Democrat | $58.3K | race page |
| House MN-06 | Doug Chapin 4.5% | Tom Emmer 95% | Safe Republican | $58.3K | race page |
| House MN-07 | Erik Osberg 3.8% | Michelle Fischbach 96.3% | Safe Republican | $34.9K | race page |
| House MN-08 | Trina Swanson 12% | Pete Stauber 88.5% | Likely Republican | $21.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 85.5% / Republican 14% · Governor: Democrat 95.2% / Republican 4.8% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Minnesota 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/minnesota/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Minnesota in the 2026 midterms. Minnesota's Senate race: Peggy Flanagan (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). Minnesota's governor race: Amy Klobuchar (Democrat) leads at 95.5% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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