Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Arkansas
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Arkansas in the 2026 midterms. Arkansas's Senate race: Tom Cotton (Republican) leads at 93.7% (Likely Republican). Arkansas's governor race: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican) leads at 96.8% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 4 of 4 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Hallie Shoffner 6.5% | Tom Cotton 93.7% | Likely Republican | $35.0K | race page |
| Governor | Fredrick Love 2.6% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 96.8% | Safe Republican | $11.0K | race page |
| House AR-01 | Terri Green 2.3% | Rick Crawford 95.9% | Safe Republican | $27.1K | race page |
| House AR-02 | Chris Jones 18% | French Hill 82% | Likely Republican | $28.4K | race page |
| House AR-03 | Robb Ryerse 4.0% | Steve Womack 95.5% | Safe Republican | $22.2K | race page |
| House AR-04 | James Russell 2.5% | Bruce Westerman 97.3% | Safe Republican | $24.3K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 7.0% / Republican 93.6% · Governor: Democrat 4.0% / Republican 95.9% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Arkansas 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/arkansas/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Arkansas in the 2026 midterms. Arkansas's Senate race: Tom Cotton (Republican) leads at 93.7% (Likely Republican). Arkansas's governor race: Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican) leads at 96.8% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 4 of 4 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Pennsylvania · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.