Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Oregon
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 98% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 75.5% (Lean Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Jeff Merkley 98% | David Brock Smith 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $7.3K | race page |
| Governor | Tina Kotek 75.5% | Christine Drazan 23.5% | Lean Democrat | $77.3K | race page |
| House OR-01 | Suzanne Bonamici 97.1% | Barbara Kahl 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $27.6K | race page |
| House OR-02 | Chris Beck 5.5% | Cliff Bentz 95% | Safe Republican | $12.6K | race page |
| House OR-03 | Maxine Dexter 95.7% | Loran Ayles 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $20.4K | race page |
| House OR-04 | Val Hoyle 94.5% | Monique DeSpain 4.5% | Likely Democrat | $26.8K | race page |
| House OR-05 | Janelle Bynum 96.5% | Patti Adair 1.1% | Safe Democrat | $25.2K | race page |
| House OR-06 | Andrea Salinas 95.8% | David Russ 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $26.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 98.8% / Republican 1.8% · Governor: Democrat 75.5% / Republican 25% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Oregon 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/oregon/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Oregon in the 2026 midterms. Oregon's Senate race: Jeff Merkley (Democrat) leads at 98% (Safe Democrat). Oregon's governor race: Tina Kotek (Democrat) leads at 75.5% (Lean Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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