Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Pennsylvania
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania's governor race: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) leads at 96.9% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Josh Shapiro 96.9% | Stacy Garrity 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $50.3K | race page |
| House PA-01 | Bob Harvie 38.5% | Brian Fitzpatrick 60.5% | Lean Republican | $30.9K | race page |
| House PA-02 | Brendan Boyle 97% | Jessica Arriaga 1.5% | Safe Democrat | $40.3K | race page |
| House PA-03 | Chris Rabb 97.2% | Republican 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $33.6K | race page |
| House PA-04 | Madeleine Dean 96.5% | Aurora Stuski 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $21.7K | race page |
| House PA-05 | Mary Gay Scanlon 98.4% | Nicholas Manganaro 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $37.4K | race page |
| House PA-06 | Chrissy Houlahan 97.1% | Marty Young 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $39.0K | race page |
| House PA-07 | Bob Brooks 85% | Ryan Mackenzie 13.5% | Likely Democrat | $34.2K | race page |
| House PA-08 | Paige Cognetti 69.5% | Rob Bresnahan 28.5% | Lean Democrat | $18.3K | race page |
| House PA-09 | Rachel Wallace 3.1% | Dan Meuser 96.8% | Safe Republican | $22.3K | race page |
| House PA-10 | Janelle Stelson 80% | Scott Perry 20% | Likely Democrat | $12.1K | race page |
| House PA-11 | Nancy Mannion 5.1% | Lloyd Smucker 94.8% | Likely Republican | $28.7K | race page |
| House PA-12 | Summer Lee 97.4% | James Hayes 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $24.5K | race page |
| House PA-13 | Beth Farnham 3.9% | John Joyce 96.3% | Safe Republican | $17.9K | race page |
| House PA-14 | Alan Bradstock 3.6% | Guy Reschenthaler 95.3% | Safe Republican | $28.1K | race page |
| House PA-15 | Ray Bilger 4.5% | Glenn Thompson 95.3% | Safe Republican | $30.0K | race page |
| House PA-16 | Justin Wagner 5.8% | Mike Kelly 91.5% | Likely Republican | $41.4K | race page |
| House PA-17 | Chris Deluzio 95.4% | Tony Guy 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $22.5K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 97.7% / Republican 2.2% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Pennsylvania 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/pennsylvania/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Pennsylvania in the 2026 midterms. Pennsylvania's governor race: Josh Shapiro (Democrat) leads at 96.9% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
Alabama · Alaska · Arizona · Arkansas · California · Colorado · Connecticut · Delaware · Florida · Georgia · Hawaii · Idaho · Illinois · Indiana · Iowa · Kansas · Kentucky · Louisiana · Maine · Maryland · Massachusetts · Michigan · Minnesota · Mississippi · Missouri · Montana · Nebraska · Nevada · New Hampshire · New Jersey · New Mexico · New York · North Carolina · North Dakota · Ohio · Oklahoma · Oregon · Rhode Island · South Carolina · South Dakota · Tennessee · Texas · Utah · Vermont · Virginia · Washington · West Virginia · Wisconsin · Wyoming
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.