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Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:27 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Across 36 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 19 and Republicans in 15, other candidates in 2; the closest: Georgia (Rick Jackson 50.5%), Nevada (Aaron Ford 55.5%); the most likely number of Republican governors is 22–23 (32.5%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| <22 | 21.5% | |
| 22–23 | 32.5% | |
| 24–25 | 23.5% | |
| 26–27 | 16.5% | |
| 28–29 | 3.5% | |
| 30–31 | 1.1% | |
| 32+ | 0.5% |
Toss-up: 2 · Lean: 7 · Likely: 9 · Safe: 18. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Kalshi D / R | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms 48.5% | Rick Jackson 50.5% | Toss-up | 48.5% / 52.5% | $153.4K |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford 55.5% | Joe Lombardo 44.5% | Toss-up | 51.5% / 48.5% | $338.8K |
| Ohio | Amy Acton 66.5% | Vivek Ramaswamy 32.5% | Lean Democrat | 66.5% / 34% | $282.5K |
| Texas | Gina Hinojosa 27.5% | Greg Abbott 73% | Lean Republican | 26.5% / 74.5% | $446.9K |
| Kansas | Cindy Holscher 25.5% | Ty Masterson 73.5% | Lean Republican | 25.5% / 73.5% | $50.5K |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5% · Bernadette Wilson 21% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | — | $1.40M | |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek 75.5% | Christine Drazan 23.5% | Lean Democrat | 75.5% / 24.5% | $77.1K |
| Florida | David Jolly 23.5% | Byron Donalds 76.5% | Lean Republican | 23.5% / 76.5% | $261.8K |
| Vermont | Amanda Janoo 22.9% | Phil Scott 76.5% | Lean Republican | 24.5% / 75.5% | $171.0K |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley 80.5% | Tom Tiffany 18.5% | Likely Democrat | 78.5% / 21.5% | $703.1K |
| Iowa | Rob Sand 88.5% | Zach Lahn 11.5% | Likely Democrat | 88.5% / 12.5% | $128.3K |
| Nebraska | Lynne Walz 9.5% | Jim Pillen 89% | Likely Republican | 9.9% / 90% | $19.7K |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs 91.5% | Andy Biggs 9.5% | Likely Democrat | 88.5% / 12% | $113.0K |
| Alabama | Doug Jones 7.0% | Tommy Tuberville 92.3% | Likely Republican | 8.4% / 92.1% | $24.6K |
| Oklahoma | Cyndi Munson 7.5% | Mike Mazzei 92.5% | Likely Republican | 8.2% / 91.8% | $31.9K |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson 94.1% | John James 5.2% | Likely Democrat | 93% / 7.3% | $245.3K |
| South Carolina | Jermaine Johnson 4.7% | Alan Wilson 94.5% | Likely Republican | 5.8% / 94.8% | $18.9K |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree 95% | Robert Charles 5.2% | Likely Democrat | 94.5% / 5.5% | $35.9K |
| New Hampshire | Cinde Warmington 4.9% | Kelly Ayotte 95.4% | Safe Republican | — | $41.1K |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar 95.5% | Lisa Demuth 5.1% | Safe Democrat | 95.8% / 4.4% | $87.9K |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland 95.5% | Gregg Hull 4.5% | Safe Democrat | 93.5% / 5.8% | $42.4K |
| Tennessee | Jerri Green 4.2% | Marsha Blackburn 95.5% | Safe Republican | 5.5% / 94.4% | $16.5K |
| California | Xavier Becerra 96% · Steve Hilton 4.0% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Xavier Becerra) | 96.4% / 3.7% | $41.67M | |
| New York | Kathy Hochul 96.1% | Bruce Blakeman 4.0% | Safe Democrat | 96% / 4.3% | $162.8K |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey 96.2% | Michael Minogue 3.6% | Safe Democrat | 95.3% / 4.7% | $96.0K |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser 96.4% | Victor Marx 1.8% | Safe Democrat | 96.4% / 3.5% | $17.2K |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont 96.5% | Ryan Fazio 2.5% | Safe Democrat | 97% / 3.6% | $9.4K |
| South Dakota | Dan Ahlers 2.9% | Larry Rhoden 96.5% | Safe Republican | 3.0% / 97.2% | $26.9K |
| Maryland | Wes Moore 96.7% | Dan Cox 2.1% | Safe Democrat | 96.9% / 2.6% | $23.4K |
| Arkansas | Fredrick Love 2.7% | Sarah Huckabee Sanders 96.8% | Safe Republican | 3.6% / 95.9% | $11.0K |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro 96.9% | Stacy Garrity 2.6% | Safe Democrat | 97.6% / 2.3% | $50.3K |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes 97% | Republican 1.8% | Safe Democrat | 96.7% / 2.4% | $70.1K |
| Wyoming | Kenneth Casner 2.8% | Eric Barlow 97.4% | Safe Republican | 3.4% / 96.9% | $11.6K |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker 97.7% | Darren Bailey 1.8% | Safe Democrat | 96.6% / 3.4% | $12.2K |
| Idaho | Terri Pickens 2.3% | Brad Little 98% | Safe Republican | 2.3% / 97.5% | $26.6K |
| Hawaii | Josh Green 98.2% | Gary Cordery 0.9% | Safe Democrat | 97.4% / 2.1% | $16.4K |
Polymarket vs Kalshi: across 33 races priced on both exchanges, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.8 points on average; the widest gap is Nevada (Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 51.5%). Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask. All matched outcomes: how close are Polymarket and Kalshi?
Races led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5%); California (Xavier Becerra 96%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Senate forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · poll lead to win probability calculator · All governor markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
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Polymarket View, “2026 Governor forecast from Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/governor-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Across 36 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 19 and Republicans in 15, other candidates in 2; the closest: Georgia (Rick Jackson 50.5%), Nevada (Aaron Ford 55.5%); the most likely number of Republican governors is 22–23 (32.5%).
Races where no candidate is priced at 60% or more: Georgia (Rick Jackson 50.5%); Nevada (Aaron Ford 55.5%).
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Across 33 races priced on both exchanges the Democratic candidate's price differs by 0.8 points on average; the widest gap is Nevada (Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 51.5%).
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
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