Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Tennessee
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Tennessee in the 2026 midterms. Tennessee's Senate race: Bill Hagerty (Republican) leads at 94% (Likely Republican). Tennessee's governor race: Marsha Blackburn (Republican) leads at 96% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 9 of 9 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Marquita Bradshaw 4.3% | Bill Hagerty 94% | Likely Republican | $41.7K | race page |
| Governor | Jerri Green 3.6% | Marsha Blackburn 96% | Safe Republican | $16.5K | race page |
| House TN-01 | Kristi Burke 1.6% | Diana Harshbarger 99% | Safe Republican | $27.1K | race page |
| House TN-02 | Michaela Barnett 4.0% | Tim Burchett 95.5% | Safe Republican | $34.8K | race page |
| House TN-03 | Anna Golladay 4.4% | Chuck Fleischmann 95.7% | Safe Republican | $44.7K | race page |
| House TN-04 | Victoria Broderick 1.6% | Scott DesJarlais 96% | Safe Republican | $83.5K | race page |
| House TN-05 | Chaz Molder 6.7% | Charlie Hatcher 91.5% | Likely Republican | $66.2K | race page |
| House TN-06 | Mike Croley 5.5% | Johnny Garrett 95% | Safe Republican | $20.1K | race page |
| House TN-07 | Darden Copeland 3.5% | Matt Van Epps 96.7% | Safe Republican | $25.4K | race page |
| House TN-08 | Heidi Kuhn 3.3% | David Kustoff 95.7% | Safe Republican | $44.2K | race page |
| House TN-09 | Justin Pearson 12.5% | Brent Taylor 88.5% | Likely Republican | $46.7K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 4.7% / Republican 93.3% · Governor: Democrat 5.4% / Republican 95% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Tennessee 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/tennessee/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Tennessee in the 2026 midterms. Tennessee's Senate race: Bill Hagerty (Republican) leads at 94% (Likely Republican). Tennessee's governor race: Marsha Blackburn (Republican) leads at 96% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 9 of 9 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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