Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Virginia
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Virginia in the 2026 midterms. Virginia's Senate race: Mark Warner (Democrat) leads at 98% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 3 of 11 districts with a market; toss-ups: VA-01.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Mark Warner 98% | Bert Mizusawa 2.1% | Safe Democrat | $23.7K | race page |
| House VA-01 | Shannon Taylor 50.5% | Rob Wittman 49% | Toss-up | $63.7K | race page |
| House VA-02 | Elaine Luria 81.5% | Jen Kiggans 18.5% | Likely Democrat | $44.2K | race page |
| House VA-03 | Bobby Scott 95.2% | Edwin Rivera 3.0% | Safe Democrat | $68.7K | race page |
| House VA-04 | Jennifer McClellan 97.2% | Robert Murray 1.7% | Safe Democrat | $42.1K | race page |
| House VA-05 | Tom Perriello 21.5% | John McGuire 77.5% | Lean Republican | $112.9K | race page |
| House VA-06 | Beth Macy 7.0% | Ben Cline 92.5% | Likely Republican | $119.5K | race page |
| House VA-07 | Eugene Vindman 96% | Doug Ollivant 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $16.7K | race page |
| House VA-08 | Don Beyer 96.2% | Tony Sabio 2.2% | Safe Democrat | $41.0K | race page |
| House VA-09 | Joy Powers 2.5% | Morgan Griffith 96.2% | Safe Republican | $66.6K | race page |
| House VA-10 | Suhas Subramanyam 95.5% | Dave Beckwith 5.0% | Safe Democrat | $7.9K | race page |
| House VA-11 | James Walkinshaw 97.8% | Arthur Purves 0.3% | Safe Democrat | $29.2K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 98.4% / Republican 1.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Virginia 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/virginia/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Virginia in the 2026 midterms. Virginia's Senate race: Mark Warner (Democrat) leads at 98% (Safe Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 3 of 11 districts with a market; toss-ups: VA-01.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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