Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › South Dakota
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for South Dakota in the 2026 midterms. South Dakota's Senate race: Mike Rounds (Republican) leads at 92.5% (Likely Republican). South Dakota's governor race: Larry Rhoden (Republican) leads at 96.6% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Democrat 0.1% | Mike Rounds 92.5% | Likely Republican | $50.6K | race page |
| Governor | Dan Ahlers 2.6% | Larry Rhoden 96.6% | Safe Republican | $26.9K | race page |
| House SD-AL | Nikki Gronli 3.5% | Marty Jackley 95.5% | Safe Republican | $37.1K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 0.1% / Republican 93% · Governor: Democrat 3.0% / Republican 97.2% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “South Dakota 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/south-dakota/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for South Dakota in the 2026 midterms. South Dakota's Senate race: Mike Rounds (Republican) leads at 92.5% (Likely Republican). South Dakota's governor race: Larry Rhoden (Republican) leads at 96.6% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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