Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › California
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for California in the 2026 midterms. California's governor race: Xavier Becerra (Other) leads at 96.2% (Safe (Xavier Becerra)). House: Democrats favoured in 48 and Republicans in 3 of 51 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Xavier Becerra 96.2% · Steve Hilton 3.9% (no party labels in this market) | Safe (Xavier Becerra) | $41.68M | race page | |
| House CA-01 | Mike McGuire 94.8% | James Gallagher 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $37.9K | race page |
| House CA-02 | Jared Huffman 98.2% | Robin Littau 1.8% | Safe Democrat | $21.2K | race page |
| House CA-03 | Ami Bera 95.5% | Robb Tucker 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $43.7K | race page |
| House CA-04 | Democrat 95.9% | Republican 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $13.7K | race page |
| House CA-05 | Michael Masuda 7.1% | Tom McClintock 91% | Likely Republican | $18.2K | race page |
| House CA-06 | Democrat 95% | Republican 2.9% | Likely Democrat | $54.0K | race page |
| House CA-07 | Democrat 95.5% | Republican 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $12.8K | race page |
| House CA-08 | John Garamendi 96.4% | Rudy Recile 3.7% | Safe Democrat | $56.7K | race page |
| House CA-09 | Josh Harder 97.9% | John McBride 3.0% | Safe Democrat | $24.0K | race page |
| House CA-10 | Mark DeSaulnier 95.5% | Jeff Frese 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $26.7K | race page |
| House CA-11 | Democrat 99% | Republican <0.1% | Safe Democrat | $22.3K | race page |
| House CA-12 | Democrat 97.8% | Republican 0.9% | Safe Democrat | $44.7K | race page |
| House CA-13 | Adam Gray 98% | Kevin Lincoln 1.8% | Safe Democrat | $45.1K | race page |
| House CA-14 | Democrat 99.9% | Republican 0.2% | Safe Democrat | $42.4K | race page |
| House CA-15 | Kevin Mullin 96.6% | Charles Hoelter 1.5% | Safe Democrat | $123.2K | race page |
| House CA-16 | Sam Liccardo 96.7% | Peter Soulé 1.9% | Safe Democrat | $107.7K | race page |
| House CA-17 | Ro Khanna 96.8% | Ritesh Tandon 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $16.0K | race page |
| House CA-18 | Zoe Lofgren 98.2% | Shane Lewis 1.9% | Safe Democrat | $49.9K | race page |
| House CA-19 | Jimmy Panetta 98.2% | Peter Coe Verbica 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $50.1K | race page |
| House CA-20 | Sandra Van Scotter 1.9% | Vince Fong 97% | Safe Republican | $49.8K | race page |
| House CA-21 | Jim Costa 97% | Kyle Kirkland 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $37.5K | race page |
| House CA-22 | Randy Villegas 94% | David Valadao 6.5% | Likely Democrat | $26.0K | race page |
| House CA-23 | Tessa Lynn Hodge 5.8% | Jay Obernolte 94.7% | Likely Republican | $62.3K | race page |
| House CA-24 | Salud Carbajal 97.6% | Bob Smith 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $51.9K | race page |
| House CA-25 | Raul Ruiz 96% | Joe Males 3.9% | Safe Democrat | $26.4K | race page |
| House CA-26 | Jacqui Irwin 95.5% | Sam Gallucci 5.0% | Safe Democrat | $36.2K | race page |
| House CA-27 | George Whitesides 95.5% | Jason Gibbs 2.5% | Safe Democrat | $22.6K | race page |
| House CA-28 | Judy Chu 96.6% | April Verlato 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $142.2K | race page |
| House CA-29 | Democrat 96.2% | Republican 3.5% | Safe Democrat | $30.8K | race page |
| House CA-30 | Laura Friedman 95.4% | Scott Meyers 4.7% | Safe Democrat | $32.8K | race page |
| House CA-31 | Gil Cisneros 95.5% | Eric Ching 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $18.3K | race page |
| House CA-32 | Brad Sherman 96% | Larry Thompson 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $28.6K | race page |
| House CA-33 | Pete Aguilar 95.5% | Stephanie Vargas 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $21.4K | race page |
| House CA-34 | Democrat 97.9% | Republican 0.2% | Safe Democrat | $50.1K | race page |
| House CA-35 | Norma Torres 98% | Mike Cargile <0.1% | Safe Democrat | $46.0K | race page |
| House CA-36 | Ted Lieu 97% | Houston Brignano 2.8% | Safe Democrat | $85.9K | race page |
| House CA-37 | Democrat 96.9% | Republican 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $3.4K | race page |
| House CA-38 | Hilda Solis 98% | Pedro Casas 0.5% | Safe Democrat | $65.6K | race page |
| House CA-39 | Mark Takano 96.2% | Steve Manos 3.4% | Safe Democrat | $57.7K | race page |
| House CA-41 | Linda Sánchez 95.5% | Mitch Clemmons 4.1% | Safe Democrat | $21.8K | race page |
| House CA-42 | Robert Garcia 96% | Brian Burley 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $42.9K | race page |
| House CA-43 | Maxine Waters 96.2% | Cristian Morales 2.9% | Safe Democrat | $32.7K | race page |
| House CA-44 | Nanette Barragán 97.2% | Genevieve Angel 1.6% | Safe Democrat | $47.1K | race page |
| House CA-45 | Derek Tran 94.5% | Chuong Vo 5.5% | Likely Democrat | $43.0K | race page |
| House CA-46 | Lou Correa 95.5% | David Pan 3.8% | Safe Democrat | $50.9K | race page |
| House CA-47 | Dave Min 95.5% | Jenny Le Roux 4.0% | Safe Democrat | $28.9K | race page |
| House CA-48 | Marni von Wilpert 89.5% | Jim Desmond 8.5% | Likely Democrat | $35.0K | race page |
| House CA-49 | Mike Levin 96% | Armen Kurdian 3.8% | Safe Democrat | $28.2K | race page |
| House CA-50 | Scott Peters 95.3% | Steve Cohen 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $69.3K | race page |
| House CA-51 | Sara Jacobs 95.7% | Ricardo Cabrera 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $34.2K | race page |
| House CA-52 | Juan Vargas 95.9% | Jeff Belle 3.0% | Safe Democrat | $50.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Governor: Democrat 96.4% / Republican 3.7% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Led by a candidate without a party label in the market: California: Xavier Becerra 96.2%.
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “California 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/california/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for California in the 2026 midterms. California's governor race: Xavier Becerra (Other) leads at 96.2% (Safe (Xavier Becerra)). House: Democrats favoured in 48 and Republicans in 3 of 51 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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