Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Iowa
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Ashley Hinson (Republican) leads at 57.5% (Toss-up). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market; toss-ups: IA-02.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Josh Turek 42.5% | Ashley Hinson 57.5% | Toss-up | $732.0K | race page |
| Governor | Rob Sand 88.5% | Zach Lahn 11.5% | Likely Democrat | $128.4K | race page |
| House IA-01 | Christina Bohannan 84.5% | Mariannette Miller-Meeks 15% | Likely Democrat | $40.4K | race page |
| House IA-02 | Lindsay James 53.5% | Joe Mitchell 46.5% | Toss-up | $25.7K | race page |
| House IA-03 | Sarah Trone Garriott 76.5% | Zach Nunn 21.5% | Lean Democrat | $11.2K | race page |
| House IA-04 | David Dawson 4.5% | Chris McGowan 95% | Safe Republican | $52.8K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 43.5% / Republican 55.5% · Governor: Democrat 88.5% / Republican 12.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Iowa 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/iowa/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Iowa in the 2026 midterms. Iowa's Senate race: Ashley Hinson (Republican) leads at 57.5% (Toss-up). Iowa's governor race: Rob Sand (Democrat) leads at 88.5% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a market; toss-ups: IA-02.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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