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2026 election odds by state

Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day

StateSenateGovernorHouse districts
AlabamaSafe RepublicanLikely Republican7
AlaskaLean (Mary Peltola)Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)1
Arizona—Likely Democrat9
ArkansasLikely RepublicanSafe Republican4
California—Safe (Xavier Becerra)51
ColoradoSafe DemocratSafe Democrat8
Connecticut—Safe Democrat5
DelawareSafe Democrat—1
FloridaLikely RepublicanLean Republican28
GeorgiaSafe DemocratToss-up14
Hawaii—Safe Democrat2
IdahoLikely RepublicanSafe Republican2
IllinoisSafe DemocratSafe Democrat17
Indiana——9
IowaToss-upLikely Democrat4
KansasLean RepublicanLean Republican4
KentuckySafe Republican—6
LouisianaLikely Republican—6
MaineToss-upSafe Democrat2
Maryland—Safe Democrat8
MassachusettsSafe DemocratSafe Democrat9
MichiganLean DemocratLikely Democrat13
MinnesotaLikely DemocratSafe Democrat8
MississippiLikely Republican—4
Missouri——8
MontanaLikely Republican—2
NebraskaLean RepublicanLikely Republican3
Nevada—Toss-up4
New HampshireLikely DemocratSafe Republican2
New JerseySafe Democrat—12
New MexicoSafe DemocratSafe Democrat3
New York—Safe Democrat26
North CarolinaSafe Democrat—14
North Dakota——1
OhioLean DemocratLean Democrat15
OklahomaSafe RepublicanLikely Republican5
OregonSafe DemocratLean Democrat6
Pennsylvania—Safe Democrat17
Rhode IslandSafe DemocratSafe Democrat2
South CarolinaLikely RepublicanLikely Republican7
South DakotaLikely RepublicanSafe Republican1
TennesseeLikely RepublicanSafe Republican9
TexasLean DemocratLean Republican38
Utah——4
Vermont—Lean Republican1
VirginiaSafe Democrat—11
Washington——10
West VirginiaSafe Republican—2
Wisconsin—Likely Democrat8
WyomingSafe RepublicanSafe Republican1

National picture: 2026 Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

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