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Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:27 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 65.5% chance to win the Senate in 2026 (as of October 6, 2026). Across 35 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 17 and Republicans in 17, other candidates in 1; the closest: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 57.5%), Maine (Troy Jackson 58.5%); the most likely Republican Senate seat count is ≤47 (38.5%).
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 65.5% | |
| Republican Party | 34.5% |
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| ≤47 | 38.5% | |
| 48 | 17% | |
| 49 | 13.5% | |
| 50 | 12.5% | |
| 51 | 8.0% | |
| 52 | 4.5% | |
| 53 | 3.4% | |
| 54 | 2.1% | |
| 55 | 1.5% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | |
| 57+ | 0.7% |
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 65.5% | |
| D Senate, R House | 1.1% | |
| R Senate, D House | 26.5% | |
| Republicans Sweep | 7.5% |
Toss-up: 2 · Lean: 6 · Likely: 11 · Safe: 16. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.
| State | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Kalshi D / R | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Josh Turek 42.5% | Ashley Hinson 57.5% | Toss-up | 43.5% / 56.5% | $730.2K |
| Maine | Troy Jackson 58.5% | Susan Collins 41.5% | Toss-up | 55.5% / 44.5% | $2.12M |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown 61.5% | Jon Husted 38.5% | Lean Democrat | 63.5% / 35.5% | $1.05M |
| Texas | James Talarico 64.5% | Ken Paxton 35.5% | Lean Democrat | 65.5% / 34.5% | $2.19M |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton 33% | Roger Marshall 67.5% | Lean Republican | 33.5% / 65.5% | $762.2K |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 73.5% · Sen. Dan Sullivan 27.5% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Mary Peltola) | 73.5% / 26.5% | $1.12M | |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 73.5% | Mike Rogers 26.5% | Lean Democrat | 73.5% / 27.5% | $1.31M |
| Nebraska | Democrat 0.1% | Pete Ricketts 73.5% | Lean Republican | 0.8% / 71.5% | $496.5K |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews 16% | Darline Graham Nordone 84.5% | Likely Republican | 13.5% / 86.5% | $658.0K |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan 86.5% | Michele Tafoya 13.5% | Likely Democrat | 85.5% / 14.5% | $195.6K |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas 87% | John E. Sununu 13.5% | Likely Democrat | 86.5% / 13.5% | $308.2K |
| Mississippi | Scott Colom 8.5% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 90.5% | Likely Republican | 9.2% / 90.9% | $127.8K |
| Florida | Angie Nixon 8.5% | Ashley Moody 91.5% | Likely Republican | 11% / 89.5% | $165.7K |
| Montana | Alani Bankhead 0.4% | Kurt Alme 91.5% | Likely Republican | 0.9% / 92.3% | $156.6K |
| South Dakota | Democrat 0.1% | Mike Rounds 92.2% | Likely Republican | 0.1% / 93.2% | $50.3K |
| Louisiana | Jamie Davis 6.0% | Julia Letlow 93% | Likely Republican | 3.7% / 96.4% | $48.1K |
| Arkansas | Hallie Shoffner 6.6% | Tom Cotton 93.6% | Likely Republican | 7.0% / 93.5% | $34.6K |
| Tennessee | Marquita Bradshaw 6.1% | Bill Hagerty 94% | Likely Republican | 7.8% / 92.4% | $41.6K |
| Idaho | Democrat <0.1% | Jim Risch 94.7% | Likely Republican | 0.5% / 92.5% | $122.8K |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff 96% | Mike Collins 3.4% | Safe Democrat | 96% / 3.8% | $206.2K |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper 96.2% | Michael Whatley 3.6% | Safe Democrat | 96.8% / 3.3% | $214.7K |
| Kentucky | Charles Booker 2.9% | Andy Barr 96.5% | Safe Republican | — | $36.5K |
| Alabama | Everett Wess 1.6% | Barry Moore 96.7% | Safe Republican | 2.4% / 97.6% | $13.0K |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján 97.4% | Larry Marker 1.6% | Safe Democrat | 98.4% / 1.4% | $26.5K |
| Wyoming | James W. Byrd 2.5% | Harriet Hageman 97.5% | Safe Republican | 2.5% / 97.6% | $19.4K |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker 97.8% | Justin Murphy 1.9% | Safe Democrat | 98.6% / 1.0% | $21.3K |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley 97.9% | David Brock Smith 2.1% | Safe Democrat | 98.8% / 1.8% | $6.9K |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey 97.9% | John Deaton 1.8% | Safe Democrat | 98.8% / 1.4% | $48.6K |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper 98% | Mark Baisley 1.6% | Safe Democrat | 99.2% / 0.9% | $51.3K |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton 98% | Don Tracy 2.2% | Safe Democrat | 98% / 2.1% | $33.5K |
| Virginia | Mark Warner 98% | Bert Mizusawa 2.1% | Safe Democrat | 98.4% / 1.1% | $23.7K |
| West Virginia | Rachel Fetty Anderson 1.1% | Shelley Moore Capito 98.2% | Safe Republican | 2.5% / 97.8% | $16.2K |
| Oklahoma | N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas 1.4% | Kevin Hern 98.4% | Safe Republican | 3.7% / 96.8% | $26.6K |
| Delaware | Democrat 98.5% | Republican 1.6% | Safe Democrat | 98.9% / 1.2% | $31.7K |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed 99.2% | Raymond McKay 0.8% | Safe Democrat | 99% / 0.9% | $26.6K |
Polymarket vs Kalshi: across 33 races priced on both exchanges, the Democratic candidate's price differs by 1.0 points on average; the widest gap is Maine (Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 55.5%). Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask. Control of the chamber on both: Polymarket vs Kalshi. All matched outcomes: how close are Polymarket and Kalshi?
Independent and third-party candidates priced at 10% or more: Nebraska (Independent 26.5%).
Races led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska (Mary Peltola 73.5%).
Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.
More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Governor forecast · House forecast · 2026 elections by state · poll lead to win probability calculator · All senate markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
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Polymarket View, “2026 Senate forecast from Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 65.5% chance to win the Senate in 2026 (as of October 6, 2026). Across 35 races with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 17 and Republicans in 17, other candidates in 1; the closest: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 57.5%), Maine (Troy Jackson 58.5%); the most likely Republican Senate seat count is ≤47 (38.5%).
Races where no candidate is priced at 60% or more: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 57.5%); Maine (Troy Jackson 58.5%).
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.
Across 33 races priced on both exchanges the Democratic candidate's price differs by 1.0 points on average; the widest gap is Maine (Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 55.5%).
Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.
Free to use on your site with the source link included (CC BY 4.0); it updates twice a day:
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/senate-map-2026/" width="100%" height="470" style="border:0;max-width:600px" loading="lazy" title="2026 Senate map from Polymarket odds"></iframe>
Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.