Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Kentucky
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Kentucky in the 2026 midterms. Kentucky's Senate race: Andy Barr (Republican) leads at 96.5% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Charles Booker 3.0% | Andy Barr 96.5% | Safe Republican | $36.5K | race page |
| House KY-01 | Drew Williams 3.5% | James Comer 96.2% | Safe Republican | $50.4K | race page |
| House KY-02 | Megan Wingfield 3.1% | Brett Guthrie 97.1% | Safe Republican | $17.7K | race page |
| House KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey 95.1% | Maria Rodriguez 2.4% | Safe Democrat | $47.3K | race page |
| House KY-04 | Melissa Strange 2.4% | Ed Gallrein 96% | Safe Republican | $46.1K | race page |
| House KY-05 | Ned Pillersdorf 3.5% | Hal Rogers 96.8% | Safe Republican | $67.8K | race page |
| House KY-06 | Zach Dembo 26.5% | Ralph Alvarado 72.5% | Lean Republican | $54.3K | race page |
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Kentucky 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/kentucky/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Kentucky in the 2026 midterms. Kentucky's Senate race: Andy Barr (Republican) leads at 96.5% (Safe Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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