Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Kansas
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Kansas in the 2026 midterms. Kansas's Senate race: Roger Marshall (Republican) leads at 67.5% (Lean Republican). Kansas's governor race: Ty Masterson (Republican) leads at 73.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Adam Hamilton 33.5% | Roger Marshall 67.5% | Lean Republican | $770.9K | race page |
| Governor | Cindy Holscher 25.5% | Ty Masterson 73.5% | Lean Republican | $50.5K | race page |
| House KS-01 | Lauren Reinhold 4.5% | Tracey Mann 95.5% | Safe Republican | $21.2K | race page |
| House KS-02 | Don Coover 11.5% | Derek Schmidt 89% | Likely Republican | $17.2K | race page |
| House KS-03 | Sharice Davids 96% | Eric Jenkins 4.5% | Safe Democrat | $33.5K | race page |
| House KS-04 | Katy Tyndell 4.5% | Ron Estes 95% | Safe Republican | $78.4K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 34% / Republican 65.5% · Governor: Democrat 25.5% / Republican 74.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Kansas 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/kansas/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Kansas in the 2026 midterms. Kansas's Senate race: Roger Marshall (Republican) leads at 67.5% (Lean Republican). Kansas's governor race: Ty Masterson (Republican) leads at 73.5% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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