Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Montana
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Montana in the 2026 midterms. Montana's Senate race: Kurt Alme (Republican) leads at 91.5% (Likely Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 2 of 2 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Alani Bankhead 0.5% | Kurt Alme 91.5% | Likely Republican | $157.3K | race page |
| House MT-01 | Sam Forstag 31.5% | Aaron Flint 68% | Lean Republican | $49.5K | race page |
| House MT-02 | Brian Miller 5.5% | Troy Downing 95% | Safe Republican | $59.9K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 0.9% / Republican 93.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Montana 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/montana/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Montana in the 2026 midterms. Montana's Senate race: Kurt Alme (Republican) leads at 91.5% (Likely Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 2 of 2 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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