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Texas 2026 election odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. Texas's Senate race: James Talarico (Democrat) leads at 64.5% (Lean Democrat). Texas's governor race: Greg Abbott (Republican) leads at 74.4% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a market.

RaceDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
SenateJames Talarico 64.5%Ken Paxton 35.5%Lean Democrat$2.20Mrace page
GovernorGina Hinojosa 25.5%Greg Abbott 74.4%Lean Republican$456.5Krace page
House TX-01Yolanda Prince 2.9%Nathaniel Moran 96.5%Safe Republican$60.1Krace page
House TX-02Shaun Finnie 8.5%Steve Toth 92%Likely Republican$30.6Krace page
House TX-03Evan Hunt 4.2%Keith Self 94.5%Likely Republican$41.6Krace page
House TX-04Jason Pearce 4.0%Pat Fallon 95.5%Safe Republican$43.9Krace page
House TX-05Chelsey Hockett 1.4%Lance Gooden 96.5%Safe Republican$64.8Krace page
House TX-06Danny Minton 0.4%Jake Ellzey 95.4%Safe Republican$77.9Krace page
House TX-07Lizzie Fletcher 96%Alexander Hale 2.1%Safe Democrat$30.6Krace page
House TX-08Laura Jones 3.5%Jessica Hart Steinmann 95.5%Safe Republican$34.6Krace page
House TX-09Leticia Gutierrez 18.5%Alex Mealer 81.5%Likely Republican$33.3Krace page
House TX-10Caitlin Rourk 7.5%Chris Gober 90.5%Likely Republican$36.8Krace page
House TX-11Claire Reynolds 3.2%August Pfluger 95.8%Safe Republican$35.5Krace page
House TX-12Angela Rodriguez Prilliman 4.5%Craig Goldman 95.3%Safe Republican$46.4Krace page
House TX-13Mark Nair 4.5%Ronny Jackson 95%Safe Republican$19.2Krace page
House TX-14Thurman Bartie 3.4%Randy Weber 96.5%Safe Republican$31.7Krace page
House TX-15Bobby Pulido 79.5%Monica De La Cruz 19.5%Lean Democrat$44.5Krace page
House TX-16Veronica Escobar 97.3%Adam Bauman 1.4%Safe Democrat$27.1Krace page
House TX-17Casey Shepard 5.2%Pete Sessions 94.5%Likely Republican$52.0Krace page
House TX-18Christian Menefee 95.2%Ronald Whitfield 4.2%Safe Democrat$16.4Krace page
House TX-19Kyle Rable 1.1%Tom Sell 98.5%Safe Republican$30.6Krace page
House TX-20Joaquin Castro 96.5%Edgardo Rafael Baez 3.6%Safe Democrat$39.4Krace page
House TX-21Kristin Hook 5.5%Mark Teixeira 92%Likely Republican$64.7Krace page
House TX-22Marquette Greene-Scott 7.5%Trever Nehls 91.5%Likely Republican$26.7Krace page
House TX-23Katy Padilla Stout 38.5%Brandon Herrera 62.5%Lean Republican$74.7Krace page
House TX-24Kevin Burge 6.5%Beth Van Duyne 91.5%Likely Republican$62.8Krace page
House TX-25Dione Sims 4.4%Roger Williams 95.5%Safe Republican$34.2Krace page
House TX-26Steven Shook 2.1%Brandon Gill 97.5%Safe Republican$34.9Krace page
House TX-27Tanya Lloyd 5.5%Michael Cloud 94%Likely Republican$49.9Krace page
House TX-28Henry Cuellar 88.5%Tano Tijerina 10.5%Likely Democrat$11.2Krace page
House TX-29Sylvia Garcia 97%Martha Fierro 1.4%Safe Democrat$18.7Krace page
House TX-30Frederick Haynes III 95.5%Everett Jackson 2.4%Safe Democrat$48.5Krace page
House TX-31Justin Early 4.5%John Carter 95.5%Safe Republican$60.4Krace page
House TX-32Dan Barrios 10.7%Jace Yarbrough 89.5%Likely Republican$46.1Krace page
House TX-33Colin Allred 96.4%Patrick Gillespie 1.1%Safe Democrat$16.8Krace page
House TX-34Vicente Gonzalez 82%Eric Flores 17.5%Likely Democrat$10.5Krace page
House TX-35Johnny Garcia 61%Carlos De La Cruz 40%Lean Democrat$36.6Krace page
House TX-36Rhonda Hart 6.2%Brian Babin 92.5%Likely Republican$30.7Krace page
House TX-37Greg Casar 97.5%Lauren Peña 1.1%Safe Democrat$45.2Krace page
House TX-38Melissa McDonough 8.5%Jon Bonck 90.5%Likely Republican$28.5Krace page

Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 65.5% / Republican 35% · Governor: Democrat 25.5% / Republican 76% (midpoint of bid and ask).

Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.

National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast

On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).

Cite this data

Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.

Polymarket View, “Texas 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/texas/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured in Texas's 2026 elections?

Polymarket odds for Texas in the 2026 midterms. Texas's Senate race: James Talarico (Democrat) leads at 64.5% (Lean Democrat). Texas's governor race: Greg Abbott (Republican) leads at 74.4% (Lean Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a market.

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.

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