Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Michigan
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Michigan in the 2026 midterms. Michigan's Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) leads at 73.5% (Lean Democrat). Michigan's governor race: Jocelyn Benson (Democrat) leads at 94.4% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 5 of 13 districts with a market; toss-ups: MI-04.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Abdul El-Sayed 73.5% | Mike Rogers 26.5% | Lean Democrat | $1.31M | race page |
| Governor | Jocelyn Benson 94.4% | John James 5.1% | Likely Democrat | $245.3K | race page |
| House MI-01 | Callie Barr 8.6% | Jack Bergman 90.5% | Likely Republican | $23.6K | race page |
| House MI-02 | Ben Ambrose 0.8% | John Moolenaar 98% | Safe Republican | $54.0K | race page |
| House MI-03 | Hillary Scholten 96.2% | Terri DeBoer 3.1% | Safe Democrat | $42.6K | race page |
| House MI-04 | Sean McCann 48.5% | Bill Huizenga 52.5% | Toss-up | $8.9K | race page |
| House MI-05 | Christian Vukasovich 6.6% | Tim Walberg 92% | Likely Republican | $30.4K | race page |
| House MI-06 | Debbie Dingell 97.4% | Heather Smiley 0.9% | Safe Democrat | $53.6K | race page |
| House MI-07 | William Lawrence 61.5% | Tom Barrett 38.5% | Lean Democrat | $36.5K | race page |
| House MI-08 | Kristen McDonald Rivet 94.5% | Thomas Smith 6.1% | Likely Democrat | $21.8K | race page |
| House MI-09 | Ray Pooley 4.0% | Lisa McClain 96.2% | Safe Republican | $37.7K | race page |
| House MI-10 | Christina Hines 64.5% | Mike Bouchard 33.5% | Lean Democrat | $8.7K | race page |
| House MI-11 | Jeremy Moss 96.2% | Ethan Baker 2.6% | Safe Democrat | $81.6K | race page |
| House MI-12 | Rashida Tlaib 98% | James Hooper 0.4% | Safe Democrat | $40.9K | race page |
| House MI-13 | Donavan McKinney 98.5% | T.P. Nykoriak 0.1% | Safe Democrat | $49.7K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 73.5% / Republican 27% · Governor: Democrat 93.5% / Republican 6.1% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Michigan 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/michigan/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Michigan in the 2026 midterms. Michigan's Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed (Democrat) leads at 73.5% (Lean Democrat). Michigan's governor race: Jocelyn Benson (Democrat) leads at 94.4% (Likely Democrat). House: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 5 of 13 districts with a market; toss-ups: MI-04.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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