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2026 House forecast: Polymarket odds for every district with a market

Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:27 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026

Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 92.5% chance to win the House in 2026 (as of October 6, 2026). Across 434 districts with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 234 and Republicans in 200; the closest: VA-01 (Shannon Taylor 50%), MI-04 (Bill Huizenga 52.5%), FL-22 (Pia Dandiya 53.5%), IA-02 (Lindsay James 53.5%); the most likely Republican House seat count is Below 190 (30%).

2026 House map: favoured party by state

Alaska: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a marketAK0–1Maine: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 1 of 2 districts with a marketME1–1Vermont: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 0 of 1 districts with a marketVT1–0New Hampshire: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a marketNH2–0Washington: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 2 of 10 districts with a marketWA8–2Idaho: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 2 of 2 districts with a marketID0–2Montana: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 2 of 2 districts with a marketMT0–2North Dakota: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a marketND0–1Minnesota: Democrats favoured in 4 and Republicans in 4 of 8 districts with a marketMN4–4Illinois: Democrats favoured in 14 and Republicans in 3 of 17 districts with a marketIL14–3Wisconsin: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 5 of 8 districts with a marketWI3–5Michigan: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 5 of 13 districts with a marketMI8–5New York: Democrats favoured in 20 and Republicans in 6 of 26 districts with a marketNY20–6Rhode Island: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a marketRI2–0Massachusetts: Democrats favoured in 9 and Republicans in 0 of 9 districts with a marketMA9–0Oregon: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 1 of 6 districts with a marketOR5–1Nevada: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a marketNV3–1Wyoming: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a marketWY0–1South Dakota: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a marketSD0–1Iowa: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 1 of 4 districts with a marketIA3–1Indiana: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 7 of 9 districts with a marketIN2–7Ohio: Democrats favoured in 6 and Republicans in 9 of 15 districts with a marketOH6–9Pennsylvania: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 7 of 17 districts with a marketPA10–7New Jersey: Democrats favoured in 10 and Republicans in 2 of 12 districts with a marketNJ10–2Connecticut: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 0 of 5 districts with a marketCT5–0California: Democrats favoured in 48 and Republicans in 3 of 51 districts with a marketCA48–3Utah: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a marketUT1–3Colorado: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 3 of 8 districts with a marketCO5–3Nebraska: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 2 of 3 districts with a marketNE1–2Missouri: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 6 of 8 districts with a marketMO2–6Kentucky: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a marketKY1–5West Virginia: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 2 of 2 districts with a marketWV0–2Virginia: Democrats favoured in 8 and Republicans in 3 of 11 districts with a marketVA8–3Maryland: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 1 of 8 districts with a marketMD7–1Delaware: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 0 of 1 districts with a marketDE1–0Arizona: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 4 of 9 districts with a marketAZ5–4New Mexico: Democrats favoured in 3 and Republicans in 0 of 3 districts with a marketNM3–0Kansas: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a marketKS1–3Arkansas: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 4 of 4 districts with a marketAR0–4Tennessee: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 9 of 9 districts with a marketTN0–9North Carolina: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 9 of 14 districts with a marketNC5–9South Carolina: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 6 of 7 districts with a marketSC1–6Oklahoma: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 5 of 5 districts with a marketOK0–5Louisiana: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 5 of 6 districts with a marketLA1–5Mississippi: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 3 of 4 districts with a marketMS1–3Alabama: Democrats favoured in 1 and Republicans in 6 of 7 districts with a marketAL1–6Georgia: Democrats favoured in 5 and Republicans in 9 of 14 districts with a marketGA5–9Hawaii: Democrats favoured in 2 and Republicans in 0 of 2 districts with a marketHI2–0Texas: Democrats favoured in 12 and Republicans in 26 of 38 districts with a marketTX12–26Florida: Democrats favoured in 7 and Republicans in 21 of 28 districts with a marketFL7–21
Numbers: districts where the Democrat–Republican is favoured. 80%+ Democratic 60–80% Democratic Just over half Democratic Even Just over half Republican 60–80% Republican 80%+ Republican

Who wins the House?

OutcomeChance
Democratic Party92.5%
Republican Party7.5%

Republican House seats after the midterms

OutcomeChance
Below 19030%
190-19415%
195-19914.5%
200-20410.5%
205-20912.4%
210-21410.3%
215-2196.0%
220-2242.9%
225-2291.1%
230+2.4%

Balance of power: Senate and House together

OutcomeChance
Democrats Sweep65.5%
D Senate, R House1.1%
R Senate, D House26.5%
Republicans Sweep7.5%

Every House race with a market by rating

Toss-up: 4 · Lean: 36 · Likely: 120 · Safe: 274. Ratings come from the favourite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%.

DistrictDemocratRepublicanRatingVolume
VA-01Shannon Taylor 50%Rob Wittman 49%Toss-up$63.7K
MI-04Sean McCann 48.5%Bill Huizenga 52.5%Toss-up$8.9K
FL-22Pia Dandiya 53.5%Casey Askar 44.5%Toss-up$50.7K
IA-02Lindsay James 53.5%Joe Mitchell 46.5%Toss-up$25.7K
PA-01Bob Harvie 37.5%Brian Fitzpatrick 60%Lean Republican$30.9K
TX-35Johnny Garcia 61%Carlos De La Cruz 40%Lean Democrat$36.4K
MI-07William Lawrence 61.5%Tom Barrett 38.5%Lean Democrat$36.4K
NC-01Don Davis 61.5%Laurie Buckhout 36.5%Lean Democrat$3.1K
ME-02Matthew Dunlap 37%Paul LePage 62.5%Lean Republican$28.3K
TX-23Katy Padilla Stout 38.5%Brandon Herrera 62.5%Lean Republican$74.7K
WI-01Mitchell Berman 34.5%Bryan Steil 62.5%Lean Republican$14.1K
NY-17Cait Conley 63.5%Mike Lawler 36.5%Lean Democrat$46.8K
FL-27Eliott Rodriguez 34%María Elvira Salazar 64%Lean Republican$34.8K
MI-10Christina Hines 64.5%Mike Bouchard 33.5%Lean Democrat$8.7K
FL-07Bale Dalton 33.5%Ryan Elijah 65%Lean Republican$26.6K
FL-14Kathy Castor 65.5%Mike Beltran 35.5%Lean Democrat$54.5K
AZ-02Jonathan Nez 30.5%Eli Crane 68.5%Lean Republican$7.8K
CO-04Eileen Laubacher 29.5%Lauren Boebert 69.5%Lean Republican$41.1K
FL-09Darren Soto 29.5%Dan Green 69.5%Lean Republican$23.5K
OH-09Marcy Kaptur 69.5%Derek Merrin 30.5%Lean Democrat$37.4K
PA-08Paige Cognetti 69.5%Rob Bresnahan 28%Lean Democrat$18.3K
SC-01Nancy Lacore 29%Jenny Costa Honeycutt 70.5%Lean Republican$57.3K
NC-11Jamie Ager 71%Jennifer Balkcom 28%Lean Democrat$21.6K
CO-03Dwayne Romero 26.5%Jeff Hurd 72.5%Lean Republican$22.4K
CO-05Jessica Killin 27.5%Jeff Crank 72.5%Lean Republican$21.0K
KY-06Zach Dembo 26.5%Ralph Alvarado 72.5%Lean Republican$54.1K
FL-13Leela Gray 25%Anna Paulina Luna 73.5%Lean Republican$12.5K
MO-02Fred Wellman 26.5%Ann Wagner 73.5%Lean Republican$45.6K
WI-03Rebecca Cooke 73.5%Derrick Van Orden 26%Lean Democrat$7.7K
AL-02Shomari Figures 25.5%Rhett Marques 74.5%Lean Republican$70.8K
OH-15Don Leonard 24.5%Mike Carey 75%Lean Republican$16.1K
FL-25Jared Moskowitz 75.5%Scott Singer 25.5%Lean Democrat$32.5K
MN-01Jake Johnson 22.5%Brad Finstad 75.5%Lean Republican$48.1K
IA-03Sarah Trone Garriott 76.5%Zach Nunn 21.5%Lean Democrat$11.2K
MT-01Sam Forstag 23%Aaron Flint 76.5%Lean Republican$39.8K
VA-05Tom Perriello 21.5%John McGuire 78%Lean Republican$112.4K
NY-01Chris Gallant 20.5%Nick LaLota 78.5%Lean Republican$49.1K
NJ-02Zack Mullock 19.5%Jeff Van Drew 79%Lean Republican$31.5K
NV-02Teresa Benitez-Thompson 19.5%David Flippo 79.5%Lean Republican$35.0K
TX-15Bobby Pulido 79.5%Monica De La Cruz 19.5%Lean Democrat$44.4K
AZ-01Amish Shah 80%Jay Feely 20%Likely Democrat$63.4K
PA-10Janelle Stelson 80%Scott Perry 19.5%Likely Democrat$12.1K
WA-05Carmela Conroy 18.1%Michael Baumgartner 80.5%Likely Republican$58.0K
OH-07Brian Poindexter 81%Max Miller 19%Likely Democrat$87.8K
VA-02Elaine Luria 81%Jen Kiggans 18.5%Likely Democrat$44.2K
TX-09Leticia Gutierrez 19%Alex Mealer 81.5%Likely Republican$33.3K
AR-02Chris Jones 18%French Hill 82%Likely Republican$28.4K
AZ-06JoAnna Mendoza 82%Juan Ciscomani 17.5%Likely Democrat$12.6K
NC-09Richard Ojeda 17%Richard Hudson 82%Likely Republican$30.6K
NY-21Blake Gendebien 17.5%Anthony Constantino 82%Likely Republican$73.2K
TX-34Vicente Gonzalez 82%Eric Flores 17.5%Likely Democrat$10.5K
FL-16Kelly Kirschner 15.5%Sydney Gruters 82.5%Likely Republican$27.2K
IN-05J. D. Ford 14.5%Victoria Spartz 83.5%Likely Republican$29.2K
NC-13Paul Barringer 14.5%Brad Knott 83.5%Likely Republican$9.8K
AK-ALDemocrat 2.6%Republican 84.5%Likely Republican$57.8K
NC-05Chuck Hubbard 13.6%Virginia Foxx 84.5%Likely Republican$45.6K
OH-10Kristina Knickerbocker 15.5%Mike Turner 84.5%Likely Republican$50.5K
FL-12Kimberly Overman 12.5%Gus Bilirakis 85%Likely Republican$61.6K
IA-01Christina Bohannan 85%Mariannette Miller-Meeks 15%Likely Democrat$40.4K
NC-07Kimberly Hardy 15.5%David Rouzer 85%Likely Republican$29.5K
PA-07Bob Brooks 85%Ryan Mackenzie 13.5%Likely Democrat$34.2K
AZ-08Bernadette Greene-Placentia 14.5%Abraham Hamadeh 85.5%Likely Republican$11.9K
CO-08Manny Rutinel 86%Gabe Evans 14%Likely Democrat$24.1K
FL-04LaShonda Holloway 14%Aaron Bean 86%Likely Republican$28.8K
NC-03Raymond Smith Jr. 13.5%Greg Murphy 86%Likely Republican$22.2K
NC-14Lakesha Womack 13.5%Tim Moore 86%Likely Republican$34.2K
NE-01Chris Backemeyer 13.5%Mike Flood 86%Likely Republican$43.6K
NY-02Patrick Halpin 13%Andrew Garbarino 86%Likely Republican$18.4K
MN-08Trina Swanson 12.5%Pete Stauber 86.5%Likely Republican$21.3K
OK-05Jena Nelson 12.5%Stephanie Bice 86.5%Likely Republican$19.2K
FL-26Nicole Locklin 11.5%Mario Díaz-Balart 87%Likely Republican$82.9K
SC-02Zyon Khalifa 10.8%Joe Wilson 87%Likely Republican$46.7K
OH-01Greg Landsman 87.2%Eric Conroy 10.4%Likely Democrat$41.0K
FL-11James Pericola 11.5%Joe Strada 87.5%Likely Republican$24.4K
NY-03Tom Suozzi 87.5%Mike LiPetri 12.5%Likely Democrat$39.1K
WI-08Rick Crosson 10.5%Tony Wied 87.5%Likely Republican$26.4K
TN-09Justin Pearson 12%Brent Taylor 88.5%Likely Republican$46.7K
TX-28Henry Cuellar 88.5%Tano Tijerina 10.5%Likely Democrat$11.2K
GA-01Amanda Hollowell 10.5%Jim Kingston 89%Likely Republican$21.4K
KS-02Don Coover 11.5%Derek Schmidt 89%Likely Republican$17.2K
CA-48Marni von Wilpert 89.5%Jim Desmond 8.5%Likely Democrat$35.0K
FL-21James Martin 9.5%Brian Mast 89.5%Likely Republican$15.9K
MD-01Dan Schwartz 10.5%Andy Harris 89.5%Likely Republican$63.6K
TX-32Dan Barrios 11.1%Jace Yarbrough 89.5%Likely Republican$46.1K
WA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 89.5%John Braun 9.5%Likely Democrat$40.2K
FL-02Amanda Green 8.0%Austin Rogers 90.5%Likely Republican$16.7K
MI-01Callie Barr 8.8%Jack Bergman 90.5%Likely Republican$23.6K
NJ-07Rebecca Bennett 90.5%Thomas Kean Jr. 8.5%Likely Democrat$44.0K
TX-10Caitlin Rourk 7.5%Chris Gober 90.5%Likely Republican$36.8K
TX-38Melissa McDonough 7.8%Jon Bonck 90.5%Likely Republican$28.5K
AZ-05Elizabeth Lee 7.5%Mark Lamb 91%Likely Republican$38.4K
CA-05Michael Masuda 7.0%Tom McClintock 91%Likely Republican$18.2K
FL-18Curtis Gibson 8.0%Scott Franklin 91%Likely Republican$39.3K
FL-05Rachel Grage 7.0%John Rutherford 91.5%Likely Republican$17.2K
GA-12Ceretta Smith 7.5%Rick Allen 91.5%Likely Republican$50.9K
LA-06Democrat 6.5%Republican 91.5%Likely Republican$74.9K
NC-06Cyril Jefferson 7.5%Addison McDowell 91.5%Likely Republican$49.8K
NE-02Denise Powell 91.5%Brinker Harding 7.3%Likely Democrat$47.3K
OH-08Vanessa Enoch 9.5%Warren Davidson 91.5%Likely Republican$14.8K
PA-16Justin Wagner 6.3%Mike Kelly 91.5%Likely Republican$41.4K
SC-05Mallory Dittmer 7.5%Wes Climer 91.5%Likely Republican$10.9K
TN-05Chaz Molder 6.7%Charlie Hatcher 91.5%Likely Republican$66.2K
TX-22Marquette Greene-Scott 7.5%Trever Nehls 91.5%Likely Republican$26.7K
TX-24Kevin Burge 6.5%Beth Van Duyne 91.5%Likely Republican$62.8K
UT-03Kent Udell 5.0%Celeste Maloy 91.5%Likely Republican$15.8K
MN-02Matt Little 91.8%Eric Pratt 3.4%Likely Democrat$59.3K
MI-05Christian Vukasovich 6.6%Tim Walberg 91.9%Likely Republican$30.4K
NY-04Laura Gillen 92%Jeanine Driscoll 8.2%Likely Democrat$14.0K
TX-02Shaun Finnie 8.5%Steve Toth 92%Likely Republican$30.6K
TX-21Kristin Hook 5.5%Mark Teixeira 92%Likely Republican$64.7K
FL-15Robert People 7.9%Laurel Lee 92.4%Likely Republican$33.5K
MO-04Jordan Herrera 5.5%Mark Alford 92.5%Likely Republican$52.6K
NY-22John Mannion 92.5%Kailee Buller 5.5%Likely Democrat$24.3K
TX-36Rhonda Hart 6.2%Brian Babin 92.5%Likely Republican$30.7K
VA-06Beth Macy 7.0%Ben Cline 92.5%Likely Republican$119.5K
WA-04John Duresky 6.5%Amanda McKinney 92.5%Likely Republican$57.9K
WI-06Brad Smith 6.5%Glenn Grothman 92.5%Likely Republican$37.9K
LA-05Democrat 5.8%Republican 92.8%Likely Republican$24.8K
CA-22Randy Villegas 93%David Valadao 6.5%Likely Democrat$26.0K
UT-04Jonny Larsen 4.0%Mike Kennedy 93.2%Likely Republican$51.5K
GA-07Tony Kozycki 6.5%Rich McCormick 93.5%Likely Republican$41.1K
IL-08Melissa Bean 93.5%Jennifer Davis 5.5%Likely Democrat$22.1K
UT-02Peter Crosby 4.3%Blake Moore 93.5%Likely Republican$22.9K
NV-01Dina Titus 93.9%Carrie Buck 3.4%Likely Democrat$32.4K
FL-03Seth Harp 5.5%Kat Cammack 94%Likely Republican$30.8K
FL-28Phil Ehr 5.5%Carlos Giménez 94%Likely Republican$58.2K
GA-02Sanford Bishop 94%Matt Day 6.0%Likely Democrat$27.2K
NH-01Stefany Shaheen 94%Anthony DiLorenzo 3.4%Likely Democrat$48.5K
NH-02Maggie Goodlander 94%Lily Tang Williams 4.8%Likely Democrat$20.1K
CA-01Mike McGuire 94%James Gallagher 5.9%Likely Democrat$37.6K
TX-27Tanya Lloyd 5.5%Michael Cloud 94%Likely Republican$49.9K
KY-03Morgan McGarvey 94.1%Maria Rodriguez 2.4%Likely Democrat$45.5K
AZ-09Dani Sterbinsky 3.2%Paul Gosar 94.5%Likely Republican$36.6K
CA-45Derek Tran 94.5%Chuong Vo 5.5%Likely Democrat$43.0K
FL-19Victor Arias 4.5%Jim Schwartzel 94.5%Likely Republican$28.4K
IN-04Drew Cox 4.5%Jim Baird 94.5%Likely Republican$25.6K
IN-09Brad Meyer 4.0%Erin Houchin 94.5%Likely Republican$32.7K
LA-04Democrat 4.8%Republican 94.5%Likely Republican$18.3K
MD-02Johnny Olszewski 94.5%Dave Wallace 4.5%Likely Democrat$24.6K
MI-08Kristen McDonald Rivet 94.5%Thomas Smith 6.1%Likely Democrat$21.4K
MN-03Kelly Morrison 94.5%Tyler Bass 2.7%Likely Democrat$25.2K
MO-03Bethany Mann 1.5%Bob Onder 94.5%Likely Republican$41.0K
NV-03Susie Lee 94.5%Martin O'Donnell 5.5%Likely Democrat$7.8K
NY-24Alissa Ellman 4.1%Claudia Tenney 94.5%Likely Republican$24.1K
OH-12Jerrad Christian 4.7%Troy Balderson 94.5%Likely Republican$39.2K
OK-01John Croisant 4.5%Mark Tedford 94.5%Likely Republican$35.8K
OR-04Val Hoyle 94.5%Monique DeSpain 4.5%Likely Democrat$26.8K
TN-06Mike Croley 5.5%Johnny Garrett 94.5%Likely Republican$19.5K
TX-03Evan Hunt 4.1%Keith Self 94.5%Likely Republican$41.6K
TX-17Casey Shepard 5.4%Pete Sessions 94.5%Likely Republican$52.0K
WI-07Fred Clark 5.5%Michael Alfonso 94.5%Likely Republican$51.2K
PA-11Nancy Mannion 5.2%Lloyd Smucker 94.6%Likely Republican$28.7K
CA-23Tessa Lynn Hodge 5.8%Jay Obernolte 94.7%Likely Republican$62.3K
CT-05Jahana Hayes 94.7%Chris Shea 4.3%Likely Democrat$9.1K
FL-17Matthew Montavon 5.0%Greg Steube 94.7%Likely Republican$19.7K
NC-08Colby Watson 2.1%Mark Harris 94.8%Likely Republican$32.0K
NY-18Pat Ryan 94.8%Jacqueline Auringer 5.3%Likely Democrat$44.6K
CA-06Democrat 94.9%Republican 2.9%Likely Democrat$53.9K
IN-03Kelly Thompson 4.5%Marlin Stutzman 94.9%Likely Republican$26.4K
NY-23Aaron Gies 4.9%Nick Langworthy 94.9%Likely Republican$33.3K
CA-27George Whitesides 95%Jason Gibbs 2.8%Safe Democrat$22.6K
CA-43Maxine Waters 95%Cristian Morales 2.9%Safe Democrat$32.7K
FL-06Eric Yonce 5.0%Randy Fine 95%Safe Republican$26.9K
GA-08Kelly Esti 5.0%Austin Scott 95%Safe Republican$50.1K
IA-04David Dawson 5.5%Chris McGowan 95%Safe Republican$48.8K
IN-06Cinde Wirth 4.5%Jefferson Shreve 95%Safe Republican$37.5K
KS-04Katy Tyndell 4.5%Ron Estes 95%Safe Republican$78.4K
MN-06Doug Chapin 4.5%Tom Emmer 95%Safe Republican$58.1K
MO-06Josh Smead 4.5%Chris Stigall 95%Safe Republican$53.9K
MT-02Brian Miller 4.5%Troy Downing 95%Safe Republican$59.6K
NJ-08Rob Menendez 95%Republican 4.0%Safe Democrat$19.2K
OH-06Elizabeth Kirtley 5.5%Michael Rulli 95%Safe Republican$74.0K
OR-02Chris Beck 5.5%Cliff Bentz 95%Safe Republican$12.6K
TX-13Mark Nair 4.5%Ronny Jackson 95%Safe Republican$19.2K
FL-08Jennifer Jenkins 4.0%Mike Haridopolos 95%Safe Republican$33.8K
MA-03Lori Trahan 95%Gary Grossi 3.6%Safe Democrat$23.3K
IL-01Jonathan Jackson 95.1%Christian Maxwell 4.7%Safe Democrat$55.5K
NC-10Ashley Bell 4.9%Pat Harrigan 95.1%Safe Republican$11.3K
NY-11Michael DeCillis 4.5%Nicole Malliotakis 95.1%Safe Republican$34.5K
TX-12Angela Rodriguez Prilliman 5.5%Craig Goldman 95.2%Safe Republican$42.7K
VA-03Bobby Scott 95.2%Edwin Rivera 3.0%Safe Democrat$68.7K
OR-05Janelle Bynum 95.2%Patti Adair 1.1%Safe Democrat$25.2K
PA-14Alan Bradstock 3.8%Guy Reschenthaler 95.2%Safe Republican$28.0K
ID-01Kaylee Peterson 3.5%Russ Fulcher 95.3%Safe Republican$48.4K
TX-30Frederick Haynes III 95.3%Everett Jackson 2.4%Safe Democrat$48.5K
CA-50Scott Peters 95.3%Steve Cohen 3.1%Safe Democrat$69.3K
CT-04Jim Himes 95.4%Michael Goldstein 1.2%Safe Democrat$48.6K
IL-05Mike Quigley 95.4%Tommy Hanson 3.4%Safe Democrat$28.5K
IL-13Nikki Budzinski 95.4%Jeff Wilson 4.0%Safe Democrat$21.1K
NY-09Yvette Clarke 95.4%Joel Anabilah-Azumah 1.6%Safe Democrat$61.3K
TX-06Danny Minton 0.4%Jake Ellzey 95.4%Safe Republican$77.9K
CA-30Laura Friedman 95.5%Scott Meyers 4.7%Safe Democrat$32.8K
CA-31Gil Cisneros 95.5%Eric Ching 4.0%Safe Democrat$18.3K
HI-02Jill Tokuda 95.5%Brenton Awa 4.3%Safe Democrat$69.2K
IL-11Bill Foster 95.5%Jeff Walter 2.7%Safe Democrat$46.7K
TX-25Dione Sims 4.4%Roger Williams 95.5%Safe Republican$34.2K
AL-05Andrew Sneed 4.5%Dale Strong 95.5%Safe Republican$67.4K
AR-03Robb Ryerse 4.0%Steve Womack 95.5%Safe Republican$22.2K
CA-03Ami Bera 95.5%Robb Tucker 2.9%Safe Democrat$43.7K
CA-26Jacqui Irwin 95.5%Sam Gallucci 5.0%Safe Democrat$36.2K
CA-33Pete Aguilar 95.5%Stephanie Vargas 4.5%Safe Democrat$21.4K
CA-41Linda Sánchez 95.5%Mitch Clemmons 4.0%Safe Democrat$21.8K
CA-46Lou Correa 95.5%David Pan 3.7%Safe Democrat$50.9K
CA-47Dave Min 95.5%Jenny Le Roux 4.0%Safe Democrat$28.9K
CT-01Luke Bronin 95.5%Amy Chai 3.4%Safe Democrat$12.5K
FL-01Gay Valimont 3.5%Jimmy Patronis 95.5%Safe Republican$118.0K
FL-20Debbie Wasserman Schultz 95.5%Brent Andersen 2.5%Safe Democrat$34.2K
GA-03Maura Keller 4.5%Brian Jack 95.5%Safe Republican$26.7K
GA-06Lucy McBath 95.5%Kevin Martin 2.4%Safe Democrat$23.9K
GA-09Caitlyn Gegen 4.5%Andrew Clyde 95.5%Safe Republican$26.3K
KS-01Lauren Reinhold 4.5%Tracey Mann 95.5%Safe Republican$21.2K
KS-03Sharice Davids 95.5%Eric Jenkins 4.5%Safe Democrat$33.5K
LA-03Democrat 3.5%Republican 95.5%Safe Republican$35.5K
MA-01Richard Neal 95.5%Republican 3.2%Safe Democrat$55.9K
MD-03Sarah Elfreth 95.5%Berney Flowers 2.2%Safe Democrat$53.1K
MS-01Cliff Johnson 4.0%Trent Kelly 95.5%Safe Republican$117.7K
NJ-11Analilia Mejia 95.5%Joe Hathaway 4.0%Safe Democrat$47.3K
NM-02Gabe Vasquez 95.5%Greg Cunningham 2.1%Safe Democrat$56.8K
OH-04Joshua Kolasinski 4.5%Jim Jordan 95.5%Safe Republican$23.4K
OH-05Brian Shaver 4.5%Bob Latta 95.5%Safe Republican$53.3K
PA-17Chris Deluzio 95.5%Tony Guy 3.9%Safe Democrat$22.5K
SC-03Eunice Lehmacher 3.0%Sheri Biggs 95.5%Safe Republican$54.0K
SC-04Courtney McClain 2.8%William Timmons 95.5%Safe Republican$47.8K
SC-07John Vincent 4.5%Russell Fry 95.5%Safe Republican$42.0K
SD-ALNikki Gronli 3.5%Marty Jackley 95.5%Safe Republican$37.1K
TN-02Michaela Barnett 4.0%Tim Burchett 95.5%Safe Republican$34.8K
TX-04Jason Pearce 4.0%Pat Fallon 95.5%Safe Republican$43.9K
TX-08Laura Jones 3.5%Jessica Hart Steinmann 95.5%Safe Republican$34.6K
TX-31Justin Early 4.5%John Carter 95.5%Safe Republican$60.4K
VA-10Suhas Subramanyam 95.5%Dave Beckwith 5.0%Safe Democrat$7.9K
CO-07Brittany Pettersen 95.5%Tim Bennett 3.9%Safe Democrat$28.0K
ID-02Ellie Gilbreath 3.6%Mike Simpson 95.5%Safe Republican$39.1K
IL-12Julie Fortier 3.0%Mike Bost 95.5%Safe Republican$25.2K
PA-15Ray Bilger 4.5%Glenn Thompson 95.5%Safe Republican$30.0K
OR-03Maxine Dexter 95.6%Loran Ayles 4.3%Safe Democrat$20.4K
WA-02Rick Larsen 95.6%Edwin Feller 3.1%Safe Democrat$32.5K
CA-21Jim Costa 95.7%Kyle Kirkland 2.6%Safe Democrat$37.2K
CO-06Jason Crow 95.7%Jason Clark 4.3%Safe Democrat$31.1K
MD-06April McClain Delaney 95.7%Robin Ficker 3.0%Safe Democrat$35.0K
TN-03Anna Golladay 4.4%Chuck Fleischmann 95.7%Safe Republican$44.7K
TN-08Heidi Kuhn 2.9%David Kustoff 95.7%Safe Republican$44.2K
AZ-07Adelita Grijalva 95.7%Daniel Butierez 0.8%Safe Democrat$39.2K
CA-51Sara Jacobs 95.7%Ricardo Cabrera 2.6%Safe Democrat$34.2K
MA-09Bill Keating 95.7%Tyler MacAllister 2.7%Safe Democrat$28.3K
CA-10Mark DeSaulnier 95.8%Jeff Frese 4.5%Safe Democrat$26.6K
CA-29Democrat 95.8%Republican 3.5%Safe Democrat$30.8K
HI-01Ed Case 95.8%Adriel Lam 3.5%Safe Democrat$41.2K
NJ-04Rachel Peace 3.6%Chris Smith 95.8%Safe Republican$19.6K
TX-11Claire Reynolds 3.1%August Pfluger 95.8%Safe Republican$35.5K
VA-07Eugene Vindman 95.8%Doug Ollivant 4.0%Safe Democrat$16.5K
ND-ALTrygve Hammer 2.9%Julie Fedorchak 95.8%Safe Republican$60.9K
NM-01Melanie Stansbury 95.8%Didi Okpareke 1.0%Safe Democrat$44.2K
OR-06Andrea Salinas 95.8%David Russ 2.8%Safe Democrat$26.8K
TN-04Victoria Broderick 1.6%Scott DesJarlais 95.8%Safe Republican$83.5K
CA-52Juan Vargas 95.9%Jeff Belle 2.9%Safe Democrat$50.8K
MA-06Dan Koh 95.9%Micah Jones 3.0%Safe Democrat$27.2K
TX-18Christian Menefee 95.9%Ronald Whitfield 3.6%Safe Democrat$16.4K
CA-32Brad Sherman 95.9%Larry Thompson 2.4%Safe Democrat$28.6K
IL-02Donna Miller 95.9%Michael Noack 2.8%Safe Democrat$36.4K
ME-01Chellie Pingree 95.9%Ronald Russell 3.9%Safe Democrat$47.8K
SC-06Jim Clyburn 95.9%John Peterson 3.0%Safe Democrat$44.2K
VA-08Don Beyer 95.9%Tony Sabio 2.2%Safe Democrat$41.0K
IL-15Jennifer Todd 3.7%Mary Miller 96%Safe Republican$44.2K
IL-16Paul Nolley 3.4%Darin LaHood 96%Safe Republican$60.3K
NY-16George Latimer 96%Joseph Cinquemani 3.4%Safe Democrat$41.7K
AL-01Clyde Jones Jr. 3.1%Jerry Carl 96%Safe Republican$48.5K
CA-25Raul Ruiz 96%Joe Males 3.9%Safe Democrat$26.4K
CA-49Mike Levin 96%Armen Kurdian 4.0%Safe Democrat$28.2K
MA-02Jim McGovern 96%Republican 4.5%Safe Democrat$74.7K
MO-05Emanuel Cleaver 96%Rick Brattin 3.7%Safe Democrat$78.7K
CA-42Robert Garcia 96%Brian Burley 3.1%Safe Democrat$42.8K
CA-04Democrat 96.1%Republican 3.1%Safe Democrat$13.7K
MD-05Adrian Boafo 96.1%Chris Chaffee 2.9%Safe Democrat$24.3K
NC-12Alma Adams 96.1%Jack Codiga 1.8%Safe Democrat$66.3K
NJ-01Donald Norcross 96.1%Damon Galdo 4.0%Safe Democrat$53.8K
OK-03Suzie Byrd 0.5%Frank Lucas 96.1%Safe Republican$105.9K
CA-02Jared Huffman 96.2%Robin Littau 1.9%Safe Democrat$21.0K
GA-10Pam Delancy 0.5%Houston Gaines 96.2%Safe Republican$40.1K
GA-14Shawn Harris 3.9%Clay Fuller 96.2%Safe Republican$19.2K
IL-10Brad Schneider 96.2%Carl Lambrecht 1.8%Safe Democrat$32.9K
KY-01Drew Williams 3.6%James Comer 96.2%Safe Republican$50.4K
MI-03Hillary Scholten 96.2%Terri DeBoer 3.1%Safe Democrat$42.6K
MO-07Missi Hesketh 3.1%Eric Burlison 96.2%Safe Republican$38.3K
CA-07Democrat 96.2%Republican 2.6%Safe Democrat$12.8K
MD-07Kweisi Mfume 96.2%Scott Collier 2.9%Safe Democrat$24.5K
MS-04Jeffrey Hulum III 3.6%Mike Ezell 96.2%Safe Republican$40.8K
NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 96.2%Diamant Hysenaj 3.4%Safe Democrat$55.6K
VA-09Joy Powers 2.1%Morgan Griffith 96.2%Safe Republican$66.6K
WI-05Andrew Beck 3.6%Scott Fitzgerald 96.2%Safe Republican$59.4K
KY-04Melissa Strange 1.7%Ed Gallrein 96.2%Safe Republican$46.1K
MI-11Jeremy Moss 96.2%Ethan Baker 2.6%Safe Democrat$81.6K
OH-14Maria Jukic 3.4%David Joyce 96.2%Safe Republican$44.0K
TX-07Lizzie Fletcher 96.2%Alexander Hale 2.5%Safe Democrat$30.6K
CT-03Rosa DeLauro 96.3%Chris Lancia 4.0%Safe Democrat$30.8K
IN-08Mary Allen 3.1%Mark Messmer 96.3%Safe Republican$42.5K
LA-01Democrat 3.9%Republican 96.3%Safe Republican$52.5K
RI-02Seth Magaziner 96.3%Victor Mellor 1.5%Safe Democrat$48.4K
FL-24Oliver Gilbert 96.4%Te Mayonna Brown 2.2%Safe Democrat$34.3K
IL-06Sean Casten 96.4%Niki Conforti 2.5%Safe Democrat$43.2K
MI-09Ray Pooley 4.1%Lisa McClain 96.4%Safe Republican$37.7K
MN-07Erik Osberg 3.3%Michelle Fischbach 96.4%Safe Republican$34.9K
MO-08Chris Reichard 2.3%Jason Smith 96.4%Safe Republican$46.1K
NC-04Valerie Foushee 96.4%Max Ganorkar 3.9%Safe Democrat$51.0K
NE-03Becky Stille 1.7%Adrian Smith 96.4%Safe Republican$15.9K
TX-20Joaquin Castro 96.4%Edgardo Rafael Baez 3.6%Safe Democrat$39.4K
CA-08John Garamendi 96.4%Rudy Recile 3.7%Safe Democrat$56.7K
CA-39Mark Takano 96.4%Steve Manos 3.5%Safe Democrat$57.7K
IL-04Patty Garcia 96.4%Lupe Castillo 3.6%Safe Democrat$61.7K
TX-33Colin Allred 96.4%Patrick Gillespie 1.1%Safe Democrat$16.8K
MN-04Betty McCollum 96.5%Paul Wikstrom 3.6%Safe Democrat$28.1K
NJ-12Adam Hamawy 96.5%Gregg Mele 2.6%Safe Democrat$30.2K
TX-05Chelsey Hockett 3.5%Lance Gooden 96.5%Safe Republican$64.8K
WV-02Ace Parsi 3.4%Riley Moore 96.5%Safe Republican$100.4K
IL-17Eric Sorensen 96.5%Dillan Vancil 1.2%Safe Democrat$29.7K
NY-26Tim Kennedy 96.5%Dennis Hannon 3.0%Safe Democrat$42.6K
PA-12Summer Lee 96.5%James Hayes 2.6%Safe Democrat$24.3K
UT-01Ben McAdams 96.5%Riley Owen 3.7%Safe Democrat$49.4K
PA-13Beth Farnham 3.8%John Joyce 96.5%Safe Republican$17.9K
TX-01Yolanda Prince 2.8%Nathaniel Moran 96.5%Safe Republican$60.1K
CA-15Kevin Mullin 96.6%Charles Hoelter 1.5%Safe Democrat$123.1K
CA-16Sam Liccardo 96.6%Peter Soulé 1.9%Safe Democrat$107.7K
CA-28Judy Chu 96.6%April Verlato 1.6%Safe Democrat$142.2K
CO-02Joe Neguse 96.6%Kelley Dennison 2.1%Safe Democrat$41.2K
IN-02Jamee Decio 3.8%Rudy Yakym 96.6%Safe Republican$33.4K
OH-03Joyce Beatty 96.6%Cleophus Dulaney 2.1%Safe Democrat$58.8K
WA-09Adam Smith 96.6%Doug Basler 2.4%Safe Democrat$55.5K
IL-09Daniel Biss 96.7%John Elleson 1.8%Safe Democrat$31.9K
PA-02Brendan Boyle 96.7%Jessica Arriaga 1.5%Safe Democrat$40.3K
PA-04Madeleine Dean 96.7%Aurora Stuski 3.4%Safe Democrat$21.7K
TX-14Thurman Bartie 3.4%Randy Weber 96.7%Safe Republican$31.7K
AL-06Maurice Mercer 3.5%Gary Palmer 96.7%Safe Republican$26.3K
IL-03Delia Ramirez 96.7%Angel Oakley 1.9%Safe Democrat$51.7K
PA-09Rachel Wallace 3.1%Dan Meuser 96.7%Safe Republican$22.3K
WI-04Gwen Moore 96.7%Tim Rogers 1.4%Safe Democrat$37.0K
KY-05Ned Pillersdorf 3.5%Hal Rogers 96.8%Safe Republican$67.8K
NJ-05Josh Gottheimer 96.8%Sean Kirrane 1.2%Safe Democrat$30.7K
NY-07Claire Valdez 96.8%Melvin Rivera 0.9%Safe Democrat$31.2K
TN-07Darden Copeland 3.4%Matt Van Epps 96.8%Safe Republican$25.3K
TX-29Sylvia Garcia 96.8%Martha Fierro 1.4%Safe Democrat$18.7K
CA-17Ro Khanna 96.8%Ritesh Tandon 2.5%Safe Democrat$16.0K
CA-37Democrat 96.8%Republican 3.6%Safe Democrat$3.4K
KY-02Megan Wingfield 3.4%Brett Guthrie 96.9%Safe Republican$17.7K
NY-05Gregory Meeks 96.9%George Marsh 1.5%Safe Democrat$64.2K
NY-08Hakeem Jeffries 96.9%Lewis Mizrahi 1.4%Safe Democrat$32.7K
OK-04Mitchell Jacob 3.1%Tom Cole 96.9%Safe Republican$34.6K
WA-10Marilyn Strickland 96.9%Chris Chung 2.5%Safe Democrat$37.0K
FL-10Maxwell Frost 96.9%Republican 2.6%Safe Democrat$23.6K
MA-05Katherine Clark 96.9%Republican 2.2%Safe Democrat$37.3K
VA-04Jennifer McClellan 96.9%Robert Murray 1.7%Safe Democrat$42.1K
WA-01Suzan DelBene 96.9%Mary Silva 2.4%Safe Democrat$46.3K
CA-20Sandra Van Scotter 2.1%Vince Fong 97%Safe Republican$49.8K
CT-02Joe Courtney 97%George Austin 2.8%Safe Democrat$18.8K
CA-36Ted Lieu 97%Houston Brignano 2.8%Safe Democrat$85.9K
CA-44Nanette Barragán 97%Genevieve Angel 1.6%Safe Democrat$47.1K
MS-02Bennie Thompson 97%Ron Eller 2.6%Safe Democrat$45.7K
NM-03Teresa Leger Fernández 97%Martin Zamora 1.7%Safe Democrat$53.3K
MD-08Jamie Raskin 97%Cheryl Riley 2.5%Safe Democrat$28.0K
AR-01Terri Green 1.8%Rick Crawford 97.1%Safe Republican$27.1K
OR-01Suzanne Bonamici 97.1%Barbara Kahl 2.2%Safe Democrat$27.6K
AR-04James Russell 2.5%Bruce Westerman 97.2%Safe Republican$24.3K
GA-13Jasmine Clark 97.2%Jonathan Chavez 2.7%Safe Democrat$39.5K
IN-07André Carson 97.2%Patrick McAuley 0.4%Safe Democrat$45.7K
IN-01Frank Mrvan 97.2%Barb Regnitz 0.5%Safe Democrat$22.1K
MA-04Jake Auchincloss 97.2%Tom Stalcup 1.8%Safe Democrat$48.2K
NY-13Darializa Avila Chevalier 97.2%Jomo Williams 2.3%Safe Democrat$39.9K
NY-20Paul Tonko 97.4%Ralph Ambrosio 2.7%Safe Democrat$46.8K
NY-25Joseph Morelle 97.4%Virginia McIntyre 1.9%Safe Democrat$41.6K
WA-08Kim Schrier 97.4%Spencer Meline 0.4%Safe Democrat$28.8K
AZ-04Greg Stanton 97.4%Zuhdi Jasser 0.7%Safe Democrat$40.1K
MI-06Debbie Dingell 97.4%Heather Smiley 0.9%Safe Democrat$53.6K
PA-03Chris Rabb 97.4%Republican 2.0%Safe Democrat$33.6K
TX-16Veronica Escobar 97.4%Adam Bauman 1.4%Safe Democrat$27.1K
FL-23Lois Frankel 97.5%Deborah Adeimy 4.3%Safe Democrat$26.7K
MA-08Stephen Lynch 97.5%Robert Burke 1.1%Safe Democrat$27.9K
NY-06Grace Meng 97.5%Joseph Chou 0.1%Safe Democrat$27.5K
MD-04Glenn Ivey 97.5%George McDermott 0.3%Safe Democrat$47.8K
PA-06Chrissy Houlahan 97.5%Marty Young 2.5%Safe Democrat$38.9K
AL-03Lee McInnis 0.4%Mike Rogers 97.5%Safe Republican$44.5K
NJ-03Herb Conaway 97.5%Michael McGuire 1.4%Safe Democrat$40.4K
TX-26Steven Shook 2.1%Brandon Gill 97.5%Safe Republican$34.9K
TX-37Greg Casar 97.5%Lauren Peña 1.2%Safe Democrat$45.2K
GA-11Chris Harden 2.5%John Cowan 97.6%Safe Republican$57.9K
NV-04Steven Horsford 97.6%Cody Whipple 3.0%Safe Democrat$19.8K
RI-01Gabe Amo 97.6%Kellie Keenan 1.8%Safe Democrat$43.3K
CA-24Salud Carbajal 97.7%Bob Smith 1.6%Safe Democrat$51.9K
LA-02Democrat 97.7%Republican 1.4%Safe Democrat$62.1K
NY-12Micah Lasher 97.7%Caroline Shinkle 0.4%Safe Democrat$33.8K
CO-01Melat Kiros 97.7%Christy Peterson 1.8%Safe Democrat$43.7K
NJ-09Nellie Pou 97.7%Rosie Pino 2.5%Safe Democrat$40.1K
VA-11James Walkinshaw 97.7%Arthur Purves 0.3%Safe Democrat$29.2K
WA-07Pramila Jayapal 97.7%Nirav Sheth 2.1%Safe Democrat$34.6K
NJ-06Frank Pallone 97.8%Hillary Herzig 2.4%Safe Democrat$34.2K
CA-12Democrat 97.8%Republican 0.9%Safe Democrat$44.7K
MA-07Ayanna Pressley 97.8%Republican 1.9%Safe Democrat$36.5K
OK-02Brandon Wade 1.6%Josh Brecheen 97.8%Safe Republican$33.0K
CA-09Josh Harder 97.9%John McBride 3.0%Safe Democrat$24.0K
CA-19Jimmy Panetta 97.9%Peter Coe Verbica 1.6%Safe Democrat$50.1K
WY-ALLisa Kinney 0.4%Chuck Gray 97.9%Safe Republican$47.5K
CA-34Democrat 98%Republican 0.2%Safe Democrat$50.1K
GA-04Hank Johnson 98%James Duffie 1.7%Safe Democrat$48.2K
MI-02Ben Ambrose 0.8%John Moolenaar 98%Safe Republican$54.0K
MI-12Rashida Tlaib 98%James Hooper 0.4%Safe Democrat$40.9K
CA-35Norma Torres 98%Mike Cargile <0.1%Safe Democrat$46.0K
MO-01Wesley Bell 98%Paul Berry 1.3%Safe Democrat$36.8K
VT-ALBecca Balint 98%Gerald Malloy 1.5%Safe Democrat$51.3K
CA-13Adam Gray 98%Kevin Lincoln 1.8%Safe Democrat$45.1K
CA-38Hilda Solis 98%Pedro Casas 0.5%Safe Democrat$65.6K
OH-02Jennifer Mazzuckelli 1.5%David Taylor 98%Safe Republican$60.8K
NY-15Ritchie Torres 98.2%Stylo Sapaskis 0.4%Safe Democrat$48.0K
NY-10Brad Lander 98.2%Jennifer Moore 0.2%Safe Democrat$54.1K
PA-05Mary Gay Scanlon 98.2%Nicholas Manganaro 1.8%Safe Democrat$37.4K
WV-01Vince George 2.2%Carol Miller 98.2%Safe Republican$62.4K
AL-07Terri Sewell 98.3%Ammie Akin 0.5%Safe Democrat$92.9K
OH-13Emilia Sykes 98.3%Carey Coleman 0.4%Safe Democrat$41.5K
IL-07La Shawn Ford 98.4%Chad Koppie 0.2%Safe Democrat$26.8K
IL-14Lauren Underwood 98.4%James Marter 1.8%Safe Democrat$18.5K
OH-11Shontel Brown 98.4%Mike Kirchner 0.8%Safe Democrat$38.4K
CA-18Zoe Lofgren 98.5%Shane Lewis 2.1%Safe Democrat$49.9K
MI-13Donavan McKinney 98.5%T.P. Nykoriak 0.1%Safe Democrat$49.7K
TX-19Kyle Rable 1.1%Tom Sell 98.6%Safe Republican$30.6K
MN-05Ilhan Omar 98.7%John Nagel 1.4%Safe Democrat$58.3K
NJ-10LaMonica McIver 98.7%Carmen Bucco 0.2%Safe Democrat$57.7K
WI-02Mark Pocan 98.7%Republican 0.1%Safe Democrat$103.2K
NY-19Josh Riley 98.8%Peter Oberacker 0.1%Safe Democrat$33.8K
GA-05Nikema Williams 98.8%John Oscar Salvesen <0.1%Safe Democrat$53.7K
MS-03Michael Chiaradio <0.1%Michael Guest 98.8%Safe Republican$62.5K
NC-02Deborah Ross 98.8%Eugene Douglass 1.2%Safe Democrat$27.9K
AZ-03Yassamin Ansari 98.9%Republican 0.3%Safe Democrat$53.0K
CA-11Democrat 99%Republican <0.1%Safe Democrat$22.3K
TN-01Kristi Burke 1.6%Diana Harshbarger 99%Safe Republican$27.1K
WA-06Emily Randall 99%Teresa Fox 1.1%Safe Democrat$45.0K
AL-04Amanda Pusczek 0.2%Robert Aderholt 99%Safe Republican$38.5K
DE-ALDemocrat 99.5%Republican 0.6%Safe Democrat$47.4K
CA-14Democrat 99.9%Republican 0.2%Safe Democrat$42.4K

Independent and third-party candidates priced at 10% or more: ME-02 (A 50%); ME-02 (B 50%); ME-02 (C 50%); ME-02 (D 50%); ME-02 (E 50%); AK-AL (Bill Hill 11.7%); SC-02 (B 50%); SC-02 (A 49.5%).

Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls and not quotes you can trade at; the two sides can add up to slightly more or less than 100%. Educational information, not betting advice.

More: 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · Senate forecast · Governor forecast · 2026 elections by state · poll lead to win probability calculator · All house markets · 2026 midterms odds · 2026 midterms guide · Odds on people

On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).

Cite this data

Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.

Polymarket View, “2026 House forecast from Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/house-forecast-2026/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

Who is favoured to win the House in 2026?

Polymarket gives the Democratic Party a 92.5% chance to win the House in 2026 (as of October 6, 2026). Across 434 districts with a Polymarket winner market, Democrats are favoured in 234 and Republicans in 200; the closest: VA-01 (Shannon Taylor 50%), MI-04 (Bill Huizenga 52.5%), FL-22 (Pia Dandiya 53.5%), IA-02 (Lindsay James 53.5%); the most likely Republican House seat count is Below 190 (30%).

Which house races are toss-ups?

Races where no candidate is priced at 60% or more: VA-01 (Shannon Taylor 50%); MI-04 (Bill Huizenga 52.5%); FL-22 (Pia Dandiya 53.5%); IA-02 (Lindsay James 53.5%).

How are the ratings set?

From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. They are market prices, not polls or a model, and they move with every trade.

How often are Polymarket election favourites right?

Our accuracy study checks resolved Polymarket markets against the price a week before close: polymarkettrader.com/odds/accuracy/.

Embed this map

Free to use on your site with the source link included (CC BY 4.0); it updates twice a day:

<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/house-map-2026/" width="100%" height="470" style="border:0;max-width:600px" loading="lazy" title="2026 House map from Polymarket odds"></iframe>

Free JSON: /api/v1/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket, any party or campaign.