Home › 2026 Midterms › By state › Oklahoma
Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Oklahoma in the 2026 midterms. Oklahoma's Senate race: Kevin Hern (Republican) leads at 98.4% (Safe Republican). Oklahoma's governor race: Mike Mazzei (Republican) leads at 92.5% (Likely Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 5 of 5 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas 1.4% | Kevin Hern 98.4% | Safe Republican | $26.6K | race page |
| Governor | Cyndi Munson 7.5% | Mike Mazzei 92.5% | Likely Republican | $32.1K | race page |
| House OK-01 | John Croisant 4.5% | Mark Tedford 96% | Safe Republican | $36.0K | race page |
| House OK-02 | Brandon Wade 1.6% | Josh Brecheen 97.8% | Safe Republican | $33.0K | race page |
| House OK-03 | Suzie Byrd 0.5% | Frank Lucas 96% | Safe Republican | $105.9K | race page |
| House OK-04 | Mitchell Jacob 3.2% | Tom Cole 96.8% | Safe Republican | $34.6K | race page |
| House OK-05 | Jena Nelson 12.5% | Stephanie Bice 86.5% | Likely Republican | $19.2K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 3.5% / Republican 96.8% · Governor: Democrat 8.6% / Republican 91.3% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Oklahoma 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/oklahoma/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Oklahoma in the 2026 midterms. Oklahoma's Senate race: Kevin Hern (Republican) leads at 98.4% (Safe Republican). Oklahoma's governor race: Mike Mazzei (Republican) leads at 92.5% (Likely Republican). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 5 of 5 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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