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Updated October 6, 2026 · 308 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 308 live 2026 Midterms markets with $1.36M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 65.5%), followed by Texas Senate Election Winner (James Talarico (D) 64.5%), Which party will win the House in 2026? (Democratic Party 92.5%).
The 2026 US midterm elections: control of the House and Senate and the key state races. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🗳 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers) · 2026 Senate forecast · 2026 House forecast · 2026 governor race forecast: every race in one table with each party's chance and a safe/likely/lean/toss-up rating.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 65.5% | -1.0 pts | $561.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 64.5% | +1.0 pts | $141.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 92.5% | — | $106.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Nevada Governor Election Winner | Aaron Ford (D) 55.5% | +4.0 pts | $77.7K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 65.5% | -2.0 pts | $61.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Minnesota Senate Election Winner | Peggy Flanagan (D) 86.5% | -1.0 pts | $33.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republican House odds hit __ by October 31? | ↓ 7% 91.1% | +12.8 pts | $16.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| PA-01 House Election Winner | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 60% | -5.5 pts | $16.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Maine Senate Election Winner | Troy Jackson (D) 58.5% | — | $14.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | Yes 2.4% | -0.2 pts | $11.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Montana Senate Election Winner | Kurt Alme (R) 91.5% | — | $11.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| MT-01 House Election Winner | Aaron Flint (R) 76.5% | +15.0 pts | $10.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| GA-10 House Election Winner | Houston Gaines (R) 96.1% | +0.5 pts | $8.0K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Ohio Senate Election Winner | Sherrod Brown (D) 61.5% | — | $7.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner | Mary Peltola 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $7.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Texas Governor Election Winner | Greg Abbott (R) 73% | -0.1 pts | $6.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| South Carolina Senate Election Winner | Darline Graham Nordone (R) 84.5% | -1.0 pts | $6.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Nebraska Senate Election Winner | Pete Ricketts (R) 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Vermont Governor Election Winner | Phil Scott (R) 76.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Kansas Senate Election Winner | Roger Marshall (R) 67.5% | — | $5.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 38.5% | — | $4.8K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| NY-04 House Election Winner | Laura Gillen (D) 90% | +1.5 pts | $4.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| MO-03 House Election Winner | Bob Onder (R) 94.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| SD-AL House Election Winner | Marty Jackley (R) 95.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Iowa Governor Election Winner | Rob Sand (D) 88.5% | — | $4.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| CO-05 House Election Winner | Jeff Crank (R) 72.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.4K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Florida Senate Election Winner | Ashley Moody (R) 91.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Arizona Governor Election Winner | Katie Hobbs (D) 91.5% | — | $4.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| KS-04 House Election Winner | Ron Estes (R) 95% | — | $4.0K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| MI-07 House Election Winner | William Lawrence (D) 61.5% | +4.0 pts | $3.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| CT-03 House Election Winner | Rosa DeLauro (D) 96.3% | +2.8 pts | $3.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| FL-19 House Election Winner | Jim Schwartzel (R) 94.5% | — | $3.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Iowa Senate Election Winner | Ashley Hinson (R) 57.5% | — | $3.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory | Republican 0-3% 23.5% | +8.0 pts | $3.2K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Florida Governor Election Winner | Byron Donalds (R) 76.5% | — | $3.2K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| SC-07 House Election Winner | Russell Fry (R) 95.5% | — | $3.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Georgia Governor Election Winner | Rick Jackson (R) 50.5% | -4.0 pts | $3.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Below 190 30% | -0.5 pts | $2.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| FL-27 House Election Margin of Victory | Republican 6-9% 27.5% | +9.5 pts | $2.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
268 smaller markets are not shown; all 308 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big 2026 Midterms markets move — free Telegram watchlist
How these markets work: Election markets · Approval rating markets · Parlay-style markets.
Mary Peltola · Kamala Harris · Alex Padilla · Steve Hilton · Xavier Becerra
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 308 live 2026 Midterms markets with $1.36M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 65.5%), followed by Texas Senate Election Winner (James Talarico (D) 64.5%), Which party will win the House in 2026? (Democratic Party 92.5%).
308 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded 2026 Midterms markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/midterms/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="2026 Midterms odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/midterms/">2026 Midterms odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/midterms.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “2026 Midterms odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/midterms/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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