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Updated October 6, 2026 at 13:29 UTC · refreshed twice a day · Election Day is November 3, 2026
Polymarket odds for Alaska in the 2026 midterms. Alaska's Senate race: Mary Peltola (Other) leads at 73.5% (Lean (Mary Peltola)). Alaska's governor race: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Other) leads at 74.5% (Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
| Race | Democrat | Republican | Rating | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Mary Peltola 73.5% · Sen. Dan Sullivan 26.5% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Mary Peltola) | $1.13M | race page | |
| Governor | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5% · Bernadette Wilson 21.5% (no party labels in this market) | Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins) | $1.40M | race page | |
| House AK-AL | Democrat 2.6% | Republican 86% | Likely Republican | $58.1K | race page |
Same races on Kalshi: Senate: Democrat 73.5% / Republican 27.5% (midpoint of bid and ask).
Led by a candidate without a party label in the market: Alaska: Mary Peltola 73.5%; Alaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5%.
Ratings from the favorite's price: safe 95%+, likely 80–95%, lean 60–80%, toss-up below 60%. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not polls. Educational information, not betting advice.
National picture: 2026 midterm forecast · Senate forecast · House forecast · Governor forecast
On November 3: election night guide (when polls close, how these markets resolve, what moves the odds).
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Alaska 2026 election odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-elections/alaska/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket odds for Alaska in the 2026 midterms. Alaska's Senate race: Mary Peltola (Other) leads at 73.5% (Lean (Mary Peltola)). Alaska's governor race: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Other) leads at 74.5% (Lean (Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins)). House: Democrats favoured in 0 and Republicans in 1 of 1 districts with a market.
From the favourite's price in each race's Polymarket winner market: 95% or more is safe, 80–95% likely, 60–80% lean and below 60% a toss-up. Market prices, not polls.
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