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Updated October 6, 2026 · 91 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 91 live Politics markets with $8.95M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 65.5%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%).
Every live political market on Polymarket: US and world elections, governments, leaders, courts and policy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 42.5% | -2.3 pts | $902.6K | Apr 19, 2027 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 65.5% | -1.0 pts | $561.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 15.5% | — | $507.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 20.6% | +0.5 pts | $501.4K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 71.5% | -1.0 pts | $485.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17.9% | +0.3 pts | $417.7K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? | Alberto Núñez Feijóo 81.5% | +5.0 pts | $408.4K | Apr 1, 2028 |
| Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 220-239 59% | +19.5 pts | $342.7K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes 4.9% | -0.1 pts | $339.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 46.8% | +0.9 pts | $330.9K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Next Prime Minister of Romania? | Luca Niculescu 43.6% | +35.6 pts | $319.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 5 99.9% | +1.2 pts | $219.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 15% | -2.5 pts | $190.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 14.3% | -1.3 pts | $175.0K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 18.5% | -1.0 pts | $160.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist? | By December 31 3.1% | — | $153.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 200-219 32.5% | +5.0 pts | $148.3K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 64.5% | +1.0 pts | $141.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $129.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes 9.5% | +5.0 pts | $122.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 22.5% | — | $119.7K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 200-219 24.5% | — | $119.1K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By November 30 75% | -2.0 pts | $117.9K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | None before 2027 36% | +3.0 pts | $111.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain? | By December 31, 2026 28.5% | +4.0 pts | $110.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 10.5% | — | $110.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 92.5% | — | $106.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 50.2% | — | $85.0K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Aleksandar Vučić 66.1% | -2.4 pts | $81.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Nevada Governor Election Winner | Aaron Ford (D) 55.5% | +4.0 pts | $77.7K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 74.5% | +3.0 pts | $75.4K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026? | 40-64 62.5% | +5.5 pts | $65.8K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 65.5% | -2.0 pts | $61.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Spain snap election called? | By December 31 99.9% | +17.3 pts | $56.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Quebec General Election Winner | PQ 99.9% | +3.5 pts | $54.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner | Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 63.5% | -2.0 pts | $53.7K | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Ohio enacts data center moratorium? | By December 31, 2028 25.5% | +1.0 pts | $47.3K | Jan 1, 2029 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? | By June 30, 2027 59% | -5.0 pts | $45.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner | Yashar 50.5% | +8.0 pts | $42.1K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 28.5% | -3.5 pts | $41.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
51 smaller markets are not shown; all 91 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: Yes/No markets · Mention markets · Approval rating markets · Long-dated markets.
Ségolène Royal · Mathilde Panot · Olivier Faure · Xavier Bertrand · François Bayrou · François Asselineau · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Élisabeth Borne · Michel Barnier · Manuel Bompard · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · Carole Delga · François Ruffin · Marine Tondelier
Trump (114) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (308) · Senate Races (139) · Governor Races (92) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · World Elections (120) · Brazil (44) · France (32) · Germany (16) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (74) · Mexico (34)
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 91 live Politics markets with $8.95M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 65.5%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%).
91 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Politics markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/politics/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Politics odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/politics/">Politics odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/politics.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Politics odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/politics/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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