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Supreme Court Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 32 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live Supreme Court markets with $22.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? (Yes 29.5%), followed by Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (By June 30, 2027 33.5%), SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case? (By December 31 34%).

Supreme Court rulings, pending cases and the justices. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Supreme Court markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?Yes 29.5%—$8.1KFeb 1, 2027
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 33.5%-2.0 pts$6.8KJul 1, 2027
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case?By December 31 34%—$2.0KJan 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?By December 31, 2027 20.5%—$1.9KJan 1, 2027
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?Yes 2.2%-1.1 pts$1.7KJan 1, 2027
Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?Yes 4.2%-0.3 pts$760Dec 31, 2026
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Yes 6.5%-1.0 pts$469Jan 1, 2027
Clavicular convicted of rape?Yes 14.5%-1.0 pts$363Jul 1, 2028
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister?By December 31 54%+5.5 pts$260Jan 1, 2027
Maduro Prison Time?No prison time 62.5%+0.5 pts$159Jan 1, 2028
Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI?By December 31, 2026 16%+4.0 pts$93Jan 1, 2028
Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?Yes 5.0%+0.1 pts$50Dec 31, 2026
Maduro guilty of all counts?Yes 29.5%-6.0 pts$40Jan 1, 2028
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?Yes 11.5%+2.5 pts$30Jan 2, 2027
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?5–15% 78.5%—$12Dec 31, 2026
Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?By June 30, 2027 14.5%—$12Jul 1, 2027
Jerome Powell federally charged?By December 31, 2026 1.4%-1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?Yes 1.1%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?Yes 1.7%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?Yes 12%+1.0 pts$0Aug 1, 2027
D4vd released from custody in 2026?Yes 6.5%-1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?James Ho 19%—$0Jan 20, 2029
Diddy released from custody in 2026?Yes 10.6%-0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?Yes 18.9%+2.3 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
SPLC found guilty in 2026?Yes 15.4%+8.8 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
E. Jean Carroll federally charged?By December 31 27%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Chud the Builder convicted?Yes 42.5%-3.5 pts$0Aug 1, 2027
LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?Yes 20.5%+0.5 pts$0Nov 1, 2027
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?Yes 19.1%—$0Nov 1, 2026
Supreme Court accepts AI copyright case before 2027?Yes 10%+1.0 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Netanyahu convicted in corruption trial?Yes 38%-5.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2028
Daejon Love convicted of fraud or conspiracy by June 30?Yes 43.5%-0.5 pts$0Jun 30, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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More Politics & Elections odds

Trump (114) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (308) · Senate Races (139) · Governor Races (92) · House Races (100) · World Elections (120) · Brazil (44) · France (32) · Germany (16) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (74) · Mexico (34) · Politics (91)

Frequently asked questions

What are the Supreme Court odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live Supreme Court markets with $22.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? (Yes 29.5%), followed by Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement? (By June 30, 2027 33.5%), SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case? (By December 31 34%).

How many Supreme Court markets are open on Polymarket?

32 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Supreme Court odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/supreme-court/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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