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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 36%, followed by Netanyahu - Israel PM at 23%, Sánchez - Spanish PM at 19.5%. The market has $835.1K in total volume and $111.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 36% | +3.0 pts | $166.3K |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 23% | -8.5 pts | $155.6K |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 19.5% | +2.1 pts | $39.9K |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 6.8% | +6.1 pts | $37.6K |
| Lecornu - France PM | 3.3% | -5.9 pts | $28.7K |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 1.9% | +0.3 pts | $21.2K |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 1.2% | -2.6 pts | $32.4K |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 0.9% | +0.5 pts | $25.0K |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $26.5K |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 0.7% | -1.1 pts | $26.0K |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 0.4% | -0.4 pts | $24.2K |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0.4% | -0.2 pts | $33.4K |
| Macron - France President | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $25.5K |
| Putin - Russia President | 0.4% | -0.5 pts | $21.9K |
| Milei - Argentina President | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $19.7K |
7 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $835.1K · 24h volume $111.2K · Liquidity $665.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ None before 2027 ■ Netanyahu - Israel PM ■ Sánchez - Spanish PM · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 36%, followed by Netanyahu - Israel PM at 23%, Sánchez - Spanish PM at 19.5%. The market has $835.1K in total volume and $111.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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