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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17.9%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 15.6%, Jon Ossoff at 14.9%. The market has $1.29B in total volume and $421.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% | +1.1 pts | $15.44M |
| Gavin Newsom | 15.6% | -1.5 pts | $27.89M |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.9% | -0.5 pts | $13.27M |
| Kamala Harris | 7.0% | +0.4 pts | $13.69M |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.9% | +0.1 pts | $10.07M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | — | $12.17M |
| Andy Beshear | 3.0% | — | $13.42M |
| James Talarico | 2.9% | +0.4 pts | $10.79M |
| Mark Kelly | 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $17.68M |
| Wes Moore | 2.1% | — | $18.44M |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.7% | -0.1 pts | $14.69M |
| Ro Khanna | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $11.35M |
| Jon Stewart | 1.2% | — | $24.81M |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.2% | — | $15.77M |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | — | $12.52M |
38 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.29B · 24h volume $421.8K · Liquidity $77.91M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ■ Gavin Newsom ■ Jon Ossoff · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17.9%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 15.6%, Jon Ossoff at 14.9%. The market has $1.29B in total volume and $421.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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