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Updated October 6, 2026 · 114 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 114 live Trump markets with $3.63M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (No change 80.5%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%), US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 71.5%).
Donald Trump's presidency: policy decisions, statements, appointments, court cases and approval. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | No change 80.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.52M | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 15.5% | — | $507.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 71.5% | -1.0 pts | $485.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes 4.9% | -0.1 pts | $339.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 5 99.9% | +1.2 pts | $219.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $129.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 74.5% | +3.0 pts | $51.1K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 21.5% | +0.5 pts | $32.8K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 33% | +2.0 pts | $27.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes 2.5% | — | $22.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 69% | — | $20.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Steve Witkoff 50% | — | $19.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes 10.5% | +1.5 pts | $16.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro 71.2% | +0.1 pts | $14.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 57.5% | -7.0 pts | $13.9K | Jan 28, 2027 |
| Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? | Kaitlan Collins 99.8% | — | $12.6K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | Yes 2.4% | -0.2 pts | $11.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia? | By December 31, 2026 6.5% | — | $7.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 46% | -3.5 pts | $7.9K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes 3.0% | +0.3 pts | $7.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? | None before 2027 61.2% | +0.4 pts | $7.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes 2.6% | -2.1 pts | $7.5K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 75.5% | -1.0 pts | $7.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland? | By December 31 10.5% | -0.5 pts | $6.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will Trump meet with in 2026? | Vladimir Putin 81% | -1.5 pts | $6.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 140-159 57.8% | +36.2 pts | $6.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 3.6% | +0.1 pts | $5.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium? | By December 31 5.5% | — | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Yemen ceasefire continues? | Through October 9 92.2% | -4.1 pts | $5.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 38.5% | — | $4.8K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? | Flávio Bolsonaro 57% | -4.0 pts | $4.8K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Trump renames New Mexico to New America? | By December 31 2.1% | -1.1 pts | $4.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will be arrested before 2027? | John Brennan 23.5% | — | $4.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? | Markwayne Mullin 38% | +4.5 pts | $4.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire? | By December 31 10.5% | — | $4.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? | No Meeting by December 31 51.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? | 4.25% 59.7% | +12.3 pts | $3.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Insurrection Act invoked? | By December 31 11.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US strike on Mexico? | By December 31 5.6% | -0.9 pts | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes 3.3% | +0.2 pts | $2.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
74 smaller markets are not shown; all 114 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 114 live Trump markets with $3.63M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (No change 80.5%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%), US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 71.5%).
114 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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/api/v1/topics/trump.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Trump odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/trump/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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