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Updated October 6, 2026 · 139 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 139 live Senate Races markets with $347.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Texas Senate Election Winner (James Talarico (D) 64.5%), followed by Which party will win the Senate in 2026? (Democratic Party 65.5%), Minnesota Senate Election Winner (Peggy Flanagan (D) 86.5%).
US Senate races and which party holds the Senate after the 2026 midterms. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🗳 2026 Senate forecast · 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers): every race in one table with each party's chance and a safe/likely/lean/toss-up rating.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 64.5% | +1.0 pts | $141.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 65.5% | -2.0 pts | $61.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Minnesota Senate Election Winner | Peggy Flanagan (D) 86.5% | -1.0 pts | $18.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Maine Senate Election Winner | Troy Jackson (D) 58.5% | — | $14.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? | Yes 2.4% | -0.2 pts | $11.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Montana Senate Election Winner | Kurt Alme (R) 91.5% | — | $11.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Ohio Senate Election Winner | Sherrod Brown (D) 61.5% | — | $8.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner | Mary Peltola 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $7.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| South Carolina Senate Election Winner | Darline Graham Nordone (R) 84% | -1.5 pts | $6.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Kansas Senate Election Winner | Roger Marshall (R) 67.5% | — | $5.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Nebraska Senate Election Winner | Pete Ricketts (R) 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $4.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Florida Senate Election Winner | Ashley Moody (R) 91.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Iowa Senate Election Winner | Ashley Hinson (R) 57.5% | — | $4.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028? | Senate 54% | +2.0 pts | $4.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Fetterman leaves the Democrats? | By December 31, 2026 11.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo | Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 35% | — | $2.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which Senate races will be within 5%? | Texas 75.5% | — | $2.0K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Minnesota Senate Election: Turnout | 2.75M-2.9M 31.5% | -2.5 pts | $2.0K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Yes 6.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.9K | Jan 4, 2027 |
| Mississippi Senate Election Winner | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 90.5% | — | $1.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Ohio Senate Election: Mahoning County Winner | Sherrod Brown (D) 62.5% | +6.0 pts | $1.4K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Tennessee Senate Election Winner | Bill Hagerty (R) 94% | -0.4 pts | $1.2K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Massachusetts Senate Election: Turnout | 2.8M-2.95M 33.5% | +1.5 pts | $983 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Nebraska Senate Election Margin of Victory | Republican 0-3% 26.5% | +6.0 pts | $935 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| South Dakota Senate Election Winner | Mike Rounds (R) 92.2% | -1.7 pts | $891 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Idaho Senate Election Winner | Jim Risch (R) 94.7% | -0.1 pts | $872 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Montana Senate Election Margin of Victory | Republican 9-12% 18.5% | -3.0 pts | $778 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Idaho Senate Election Margin of Victory | Republican 15-20% 22.5% | -1.0 pts | $773 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Delaware Senate Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 25-30% 29% | -0.5 pts | $679 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Maine Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) | Jackson 3-6% 32.5% | +6.0 pts | $663 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which Dems will underperform Kamala? | Tina Kotek: OR-Gov 94.5% | +9.5 pts | $654 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout | 1.05M+ 28.3% | -3.3 pts | $651 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| New Hampshire Senate Election Winner | Chris Pappas (D) 87% | +0.5 pts | $608 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Ohio Senate Election: Turnout | 4.8M-4.95M 34.4% | +11.7 pts | $603 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| New Jersey Senate Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 21%+ 58.5% | +4.5 pts | $597 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Texas Senate Election: Denton County Winner | James Talarico (D) 61% | +5.5 pts | $553 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| South Dakota Senate Election: Turnout | 375K-400K 31.5% | +1.0 pts | $522 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Alabama Senate Election: Turnout | 1.7M-1.8M 28.6% | +3.7 pts | $499 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Georgia Senate Election Winner | Jon Ossoff (D) 96% | -1.1 pts | $496 | Nov 4, 2026 |
99 smaller markets are not shown; all 139 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Mary Peltola · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 139 live Senate Races markets with $347.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Texas Senate Election Winner (James Talarico (D) 64.5%), followed by Which party will win the Senate in 2026? (Democratic Party 65.5%), Minnesota Senate Election Winner (Peggy Flanagan (D) 86.5%).
139 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/senate/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Senate Races odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate/">Senate Races odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/senate.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Senate Races odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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