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Updated October 6, 2026 · 120 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 120 live World Elections markets with $4.49M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 65.5%), Presidential Election Winner 2028 (JD Vance 20.6%).
National elections outside the US: who wins, vote shares and who forms the government. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 42.5% | -2.3 pts | $901.0K | Apr 19, 2027 |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms | Democrats Sweep 65.5% | -1.0 pts | $561.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 20.6% | +0.5 pts | $501.4K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17.9% | +0.3 pts | $417.7K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? | Alberto Núñez Feijóo 81% | +4.5 pts | $392.9K | Apr 1, 2028 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 46.8% | +0.9 pts | $331.6K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Next Prime Minister of Romania? | Luca Niculescu 43.6% | +35.6 pts | $319.1K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Texas Senate Election Winner | James Talarico (D) 64.5% | +1.0 pts | $141.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? | Democratic Party 92.5% | — | $106.6K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 50.2% | — | $85.0K | Nov 8, 2028 |
| Next Prime Minister of Serbia? | Aleksandar Vučić 66.1% | -2.4 pts | $81.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 74.5% | +3.0 pts | $75.9K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party 65.5% | -2.0 pts | $61.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election Winner | PQ 99.9% | +3.5 pts | $54.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner | Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 63.5% | -2.0 pts | $53.7K | Oct 25, 2026 |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner | Yashar 50.5% | +8.0 pts | $42.1K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Israel Election: Likud # of seats? | 20-24 35.5% | -2.0 pts | $35.7K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? | Marine Le Pen 91% | — | $26.6K | Apr 19, 2027 |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Lee Shu-chuan 62.5% | +6.0 pts | $25.4K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Bulgaria Presidential Election | Iliana Iotova 90% | +4.5 pts | $22.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Maine Senate Election Winner | Troy Jackson (D) 58.5% | — | $14.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania? | Independent/Technocrat 71% | +6.0 pts | $12.9K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | Kuomintang (KMT) 89.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.5K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats? | <5 98% | +10.7 pts | $10.4K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Next Premier of British Columbia | David Eby 53.5% | — | $9.8K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: Second Place | PLQ 96.9% | -0.4 pts | $8.7K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Next Premier of Quebec | Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 99.1% | +0.9 pts | $8.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president? | By October 15 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $7.8K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 31% | -4.4 pts | $7.6K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Ohio Senate Election Winner | Sherrod Brown (D) 61.5% | — | $7.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Alaska Senate Election Winner | Mary Peltola 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $7.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 52.5% | — | $7.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 33.5% | — | $6.2K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner | Pete Fry 75.5% | +5.9 pts | $5.3K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.3K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Which coalition will form the next Romanian government? | PSD + PNL + UDMR 17.4% | +3.4 pts | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats? | 55-59 59% | +45.0 pts | $5.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | ≤47 38.5% | — | $4.8K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? | Flávio Bolsonaro 57.5% | -3.5 pts | $4.8K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? | Together 66.5% | +18.5 pts | $4.5K | Jun 30, 2027 |
80 smaller markets are not shown; all 120 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: Election markets.
Ségolène Royal · Mathilde Panot · Olivier Faure · Xavier Bertrand · François Bayrou · François Asselineau · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Élisabeth Borne · Michel Barnier · Manuel Bompard · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · Carole Delga · François Ruffin · Marine Tondelier
Trump (114) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (308) · Senate Races (139) · Governor Races (92) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · Brazil (44) · France (32) · Germany (16) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (74) · Mexico (34) · Politics (91)
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 120 live World Elections markets with $4.49M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Democrats Sweep 65.5%), Presidential Election Winner 2028 (JD Vance 20.6%).
120 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded World Elections markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/world-elections/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="World Elections odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/world-elections/">World Elections odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/world-elections.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “World Elections odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/world-elections/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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