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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 22.5%, followed by By December 31 at 11.5%, By November 30 at 6.5%. The market has $26.89M in total volume and $122.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 22.5% | — | $360.3K |
| By December 31 | 11.5% | — | $5.06M |
| By November 30 | 6.5% | +1.0 pts | $119.9K |
| By October 31 | 2.6% | +0.9 pts | $358.3K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $4.96M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $4.39M |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $3.41M |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $3.23M |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.71M |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.60M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $1.55M |
| By August 22 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $79.5K |
| By August 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $61.8K |
| By March 13 (settled) | 0.0% | — | — |
Total volume $26.89M · 24h volume $122.7K · Liquidity $444.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By December 31 ■ By November 30 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 22.5%, followed by By December 31 at 11.5%, By November 30 at 6.5%. The market has $26.89M in total volume and $122.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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