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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is J.D. Vance at 50.2%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15.2%, Tucker Carlson at 3.1%. The market has $709.76M in total volume and $89.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 50.2% | — | $15.76M |
| Marco Rubio | 15.2% | -0.1 pts | $10.73M |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.1% | — | $13.84M |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $15.63M |
| Ted Cruz | 2.4% | -0.1 pts | $19.66M |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | — | $9.63M |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | — | $9.74M |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $8.62M |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | — | $6.15M |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.4% | — | $14.09M |
| Tom Cotton | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.72M |
| Josh Hawley | 0.4% | — | $20.41M |
| Brian Kemp | 0.4% | — | $17.94M |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.4% | — | $9.37M |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.4% | — | $8.72M |
27 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $709.76M · 24h volume $89.8K · Liquidity $52.14M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ J.D. Vance ■ Marco Rubio ■ Tucker Carlson · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is J.D. Vance at 50.2%, followed by Marco Rubio at 15.2%, Tucker Carlson at 3.1%. The market has $709.76M in total volume and $89.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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