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Updated October 6, 2026 · 34 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 34 live Mexico markets with $15.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 6? (21°C 39%), followed by Querétaro Governor Election Winner (Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero 44%), Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner (Leonardo Montañez Castro 43.5%).
Mexico: President Sheinbaum, the legislative elections and relations with the US. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 6? | 21°C 39% | +11.0 pts | $4.4K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Querétaro Governor Election Winner | Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero 44% | +7.5 pts | $2.4K | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner | Leonardo Montañez Castro 43.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.4K | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 7? | 22°C 40.5% | — | $1.3K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner | Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera 53.2% | -6.6 pts | $1.0K | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026? | Juan Reyes Mejía González 20% | +5.5 pts | $899 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Mexico Legislative Election Winner | Morena 85% | +0.5 pts | $805 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil? | By December 31 46.5% | — | $641 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of October? | Indonesia 57.5% | +6.5 pts | $343 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico? | By December 31, 2026 3.4% | -0.4 pts | $315 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Sonora Governor Election Winner | Lorenia Valles Sampedro 57% | -1.5 pts | $269 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested? | By December 31 27.7% | -17.3 pts | $253 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Chihuahua Governor Election Winner | Cruz Pérez Cuéllar 45% | +2.0 pts | $211 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Lowest temperature in Mexico City on October 6? | 8°C or below 0.5% | -0.9 pts | $200 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Nuevo León Governor Election Winner | Adrián de la Garza Santos 28.5% | — | $186 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Zacatecas Governor Election Winner | Verónica Díaz Robles 46.5% | +2.5 pts | $170 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Campeche Governor Election Winner | Pablo Gutiérrez Lazarus 68.5% | -8.0 pts | $94 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026? | 2.5-3.0% 32% | — | $92 | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Guerrero Governor Election Winner | Beatriz Mojica Morga 84.9% | -0.4 pts | $80 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Bank of Mexico Decision in November? | No change 95% | +0.5 pts | $51 | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Lowest temperature in Mexico City on October 7? | 8°C or below 2.5% | — | $48 | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Nayarit Governor Election Winner | Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez 53% | -9.2 pts | $40 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Colima Governor Election Winner | Rosa María Bayardo Cabrera 82.5% | -2.0 pts | $31 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Baja California Governor Election Winner | Julieta Ramírez Padilla 75.4% | -1.0 pts | $24 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place? | PAN 76.5% | — | $15 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner | Manuel Cota Cárdenas 74.2% | +1.1 pts | $12 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Michoacán Governor Election Winner | Carlos Torres Piña 55.8% | +5.5 pts | $10 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Mexico Annual Inflation 2026 | 4.00% to 4.49% 45.5% | +1.0 pts | $7 | Jan 9, 2027 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US? | By December 31 18.5% | -0.5 pts | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Quintana Roo Governor Election Winner | Eugenio Segura Vázquez 80.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| San Luis Potosí Governor Election Winner | Ruth González Silva 64% | -1.0 pts | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| Sinaloa Governor Election Winner | Imelda Castro Castro 85.5% | — | $0 | Jun 7, 2027 |
| USMCA extended in 2026? | Yes 9.5% | — | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| García out as Governor of Nuevo León by…? | December 31, 2026 8.0% | -2.5 pts | $0 | Jan 1, 2027 |
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 34 live Mexico markets with $15.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Highest temperature in Mexico City on October 6? (21°C 39%), followed by Querétaro Governor Election Winner (Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero 44%), Aguascalientes Governor Election Winner (Leonardo Montañez Castro 43.5%).
34 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/mexico/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Mexico odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mexico/">Mexico odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/mexico.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Mexico odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mexico/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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