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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is China at 75.5%, followed by No meeting by December 31 at 18.5%, United States at 3.8%. The market has $1.70M in total volume and $7.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 75.5% | -1.0 pts | $254.9K |
| No meeting by December 31 | 18.5% | — | $482.4K |
| United States | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $102.7K |
| Other | 0.7% | +0.3 pts | $81.8K |
| Russia | 0.5% | — | $123.8K |
| Turkey | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $83.6K |
| Gulf country | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $77.9K |
| Switzerland | 0.4% | — | $67.8K |
| Other EU country | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $72.9K |
| Finland | 0.2% | — | $70.0K |
| Belarus | 0.1% | — | $76.6K |
| Australia | <0.1% | — | $53.6K |
| South Korea | <0.1% | — | $53.4K |
| Ukraine | <0.1% | — | $51.3K |
| Japan | <0.1% | — | $48.0K |
Total volume $1.70M · 24h volume $7.4K · Liquidity $506.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ China ■ No meeting by December 31 ■ United States · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is China at 75.5%, followed by No meeting by December 31 at 18.5%, United States at 3.8%. The market has $1.70M in total volume and $7.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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