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Germany Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 16 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 16 live Germany markets with $44.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany? (By December 31, 2027 24.5%), followed by When will the Rhine River return to normal levels? (No return before November 1, 2026 70.5%), EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? (30M+ 96.3%).

Germany: the chancellor, the coalition government and elections. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Germany markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?By December 31, 2027 24.5%—$19.8KJan 1, 2027
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?No return before November 1, 2026 70.5%+38.0 pts$7.6KNov 1, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?30M+ 96.3%-0.2 pts$4.1KNov 1, 2026
Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?Ulrich Siegmund 61%-6.5 pts$3.7KJun 1, 2027
EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?30M+ 86.5%+8.5 pts$2.8KDec 1, 2026
IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks?By December 31 52.5%+21.5 pts$2.1KJan 1, 2027
EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?30M+ 81.5%—$1.7KJan 1, 2027
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Yes 12.5%+1.5 pts$1.2KDec 31, 2026
Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?Elif Eralp 80.5%+6.5 pts$690Jun 1, 2027
Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?1.3%+ 44.5%+2.5 pts$556Oct 30, 2026
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?Yes 51%+1.0 pts$347Jan 1, 2027
Saxony-Anhalt snap election called in 2026?Yes 27.5%-1.5 pts$140Jan 1, 2027
Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?No Next Chancellor before 2028 68.5%—$42Jan 1, 2028
European military action against Iran?By December 31 6.0%—$42Dec 31, 2026
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen?By December 31 8.0%+0.5 pts$0Dec 31, 2026
Bundesliga: Most Assists 2026-27Michael Olise 49.5%-0.5 pts$0Jun 15, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

Friedrich Merz

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Germany odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 16 live Germany markets with $44.9K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany? (By December 31, 2027 24.5%), followed by When will the Rhine River return to normal levels? (No return before November 1, 2026 70.5%), EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? (30M+ 96.3%).

How many Germany markets are open on Polymarket?

16 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Germany odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/germany/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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