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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Markwayne Mullin at 33.5%, followed by Kristi Noem at 31.6%, Dan Scavino at 29.6%. The market has $1.43M in total volume and $4.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi (settled) | 100% | -1.5 pts | $365.3K |
| Tulsi Gabbard (settled) | 100% | +40.5 pts | $100.6K |
| Karoline Leavitt (settled) | 100% | +80.0 pts | $77.1K |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer (settled) | 100% | +17.0 pts | $7.1K |
| Dan Bongino (settled) | 100% | +16.0 pts | $5.1K |
| Markwayne Mullin | 33.5% | -3.0 pts | $2.6K |
| Kristi Noem | 31.6% | -1.2 pts | $98.5K |
| Dan Scavino | 29.6% | — | $137 |
| Pete Hegseth | 22.5% | -2.0 pts | $130.0K |
| Kash Patel | 19.5% | -0.5 pts | $307.1K |
| Susie Wiles | 18% | +3.0 pts | $58.1K |
| Tom Homan | 18% | -0.5 pts | $253 |
| David Sacks | 17% | -9.2 pts | $10.0K |
| Russell Vought | 17% | +1.0 pts | $284 |
| Howard Lutnick | 16% | +0.5 pts | $97.6K |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $1.43M · 24h volume $4.5K · Liquidity $80.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Markwayne Mullin ■ Kristi Noem ■ Dan Scavino · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Markwayne Mullin at 33.5%, followed by Kristi Noem at 31.6%, Dan Scavino at 29.6%. The market has $1.43M in total volume and $4.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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