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Updated October 6, 2026 · 92 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 92 live Governor Races markets with $130.0K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Nevada Governor Election Winner (Aaron Ford (D) 55.5%), followed by Texas Governor Election Winner (Greg Abbott (R) 73%), Vermont Governor Election Winner (Phil Scott (R) 76.5%).
US governor races in the 2026 election cycle. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🗳 2026 governor race forecast · 2026 midterm forecast (all chambers): every race in one table with each party's chance and a safe/likely/lean/toss-up rating.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Governor Election Winner | Aaron Ford (D) 55.5% | +4.0 pts | $77.7K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Texas Governor Election Winner | Greg Abbott (R) 73% | -0.1 pts | $6.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Vermont Governor Election Winner | Phil Scott (R) 76.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Iowa Governor Election Winner | Rob Sand (D) 88.5% | — | $4.5K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Arizona Governor Election Winner | Katie Hobbs (D) 91.5% | — | $4.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Florida Governor Election Winner | Byron Donalds (R) 76.5% | — | $3.2K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Georgia Governor Election Winner | Rick Jackson (R) 50.5% | -4.0 pts | $3.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Ohio Governor Election Winner | Amy Acton (D) 67.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.8K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| California Governor Election Winner | Xavier Becerra 96% | +0.4 pts | $2.2K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Alaska Governor Election Winner | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5% | -0.8 pts | $1.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Wisconsin Governor Election Winner | David Crowley (D) 80.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.9K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Vermont Governor Election Margin of Victory | Republican 0-5% 26.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.7K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections? | 22–23 32.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.7K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Oregon Governor Election Margin of Victory | Kotek 6-9% 21.9% | +5.2 pts | $1.4K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| New York Governor Election: Nassau County Winner | Bruce Blakeman (R) 59.5% | +4.0 pts | $909 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Massachusetts Governor Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 25-30% 26.5% | -5.0 pts | $768 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Oregon Governor Election Winner | Tina Kotek (D) 75.5% | — | $653 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Michigan Governor Election Winner | Jocelyn Benson (D) 94.1% | -0.1 pts | $561 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Connecticut Governor Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 15-20% 37.5% | +5.0 pts | $488 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? | Yes 65% | +3.0 pts | $476 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 25-30% 30% | -1.5 pts | $435 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| South Carolina Governor Election Margin of Victory | Republican 5-10% 29.5% | — | $413 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory | Crowley 3-6% 28.5% | — | $405 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Nebraska Governor Election Winner | Jim Pillen (R) 89% | -1.5 pts | $402 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Hawaii Governor Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 40-45% 31.5% | +0.5 pts | $374 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout | 370K-400K 29.5% | -2.0 pts | $358 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Idaho Governor Election Margin of Victory | Republican 25-30% 31% | +2.0 pts | $322 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| New York Governor Election Winner | Kathy Hochul (D) 96.1% | +0.6 pts | $306 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala? | 2 42% | -0.5 pts | $300 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner | Steve Hilton 65.5% | +1.0 pts | $288 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Nevada Governor Election Margin of Victory | Ford 0-3% 25% | — | $270 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory | Abbott 0-3% 21.5% | -1.5 pts | $248 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Kansas Governor Election Winner | Ty Masterson (R) 73.5% | — | $242 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory | Democrat 20-25% 24.2% | +1.3 pts | $221 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Iowa Governor Election Margin of Victory | Sand 6-9% 24.5% | — | $214 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory | Republican 15-20% 32% | -0.5 pts | $196 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Minnesota Governor Election Winner | Amy Klobuchar (D) 95.5% | — | $194 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Nevada Governor Election: Washoe County Winner | Aaron Ford (D) 63.5% | — | $193 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Vermont Governor Election: Turnout | 325K-350K 37.2% | +1.5 pts | $183 | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Massachusetts Governor Election Winner | Maura Healey (D) 96.2% | -0.1 pts | $180 | Nov 4, 2026 |
52 smaller markets are not shown; all 92 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Kamala Harris · Alex Padilla · Steve Hilton · Xavier Becerra · Mary Peltola
Trump (114) · 2028 Presidential Election (99) · 2026 Midterms (308) · Senate Races (139) · House Races (100) · Supreme Court (32) · World Elections (120) · Brazil (44) · France (32) · Germany (16) · United Kingdom (22) · Canada (74) · Mexico (34) · Politics (91)
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 92 live Governor Races markets with $130.0K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Nevada Governor Election Winner (Aaron Ford (D) 55.5%), followed by Texas Governor Election Winner (Greg Abbott (R) 73%), Vermont Governor Election Winner (Phil Scott (R) 76.5%).
92 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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Polymarket View, “Governor Races odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/governors/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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