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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 69%, followed by By November 30, 2027 at 65.5%, By October 31, 2027 at 62%. The market has $8.31M in total volume and $20.2K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 69% | +3.5 pts | $40.3K |
| By November 30, 2027 | 65.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.8K |
| By October 31, 2027 | 62% | — | $69.0K |
| By September 30, 2027 | 61.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.9K |
| By August 31, 2027 | 57.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.3K |
| By July 31, 2027 | 53% | -0.5 pts | $2.8K |
| By June 30, 2027 | 49.5% | +0.5 pts | $162.3K |
| By May 31, 2027 | 47.5% | +2.0 pts | $14.4K |
| By April 30, 2027 | 38% | +0.5 pts | $3.0K |
| By March 31, 2027 | 33.5% | — | $177.6K |
| By February 28, 2027 | 25% | — | $27.4K |
| By January 31, 2027 | 22.5% | +2.0 pts | $56.3K |
| By December 31 | 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.74M |
| By November 30 | 8.5% | — | $40.3K |
| By October 31 | 3.9% | -0.7 pts | $1.85M |
3 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $8.31M · 24h volume $20.2K · Liquidity $1.19M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By November 30, 2027 ■ By October 31, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 69%, followed by By November 30, 2027 at 65.5%, By October 31, 2027 at 62%. The market has $8.31M in total volume and $20.2K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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