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Brazil Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 44 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Brazil: the 2026 presidential election and the country's politics and economy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🇧🇷 Eleição presidencial 2026: probabilidades em português · Brazil election guide
🇪🇸 Versión en español · 🇧🇷 Versão em português
Live Brazil markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | Yes 18.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in December? | 25 bps decrease 46.5% | -22.0 pts | $9.7K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president? | By October 15 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $7.8K | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 52.5% | — | $7.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)? | 0.0% to 0.2% 49% | +30.5 pts | $5.6K | Dec 2, 2026 |
| Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? | Flávio Bolsonaro 57.5% | -3.5 pts | $4.8K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo | Flavio Bolsonaro 94.5% | — | $4.4K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Roraima | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.5% | — | $4.4K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul | Flavio Bolsonaro 97.8% | — | $4.1K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 | 5.00-5.49% 44% | -5.2 pts | $3.9K | Jan 13, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad | Lula 63.5% | — | $3.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31? | Yes 29.3% | +25.4 pts | $3.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in November? | 25 bps decrease 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.0K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rondônia | Flavio Bolsonaro 99% | — | $2.6K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte | Lula 97.8% | — | $2.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas | Lula 57.5% | — | $2.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout | 78-80% 46% | — | $2.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo | Flavio Bolsonaro 95.9% | — | $2.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.5% | — | $2.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio de Janeiro | Flavio Bolsonaro 90.5% | — | $2.2K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo | Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 35% | — | $2.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Paraíba | Lula 98.5% | — | $2.0K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia | Lula 93.2% | — | $1.7K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | Yes 2.2% | -1.1 pts | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Acre | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.4% | — | $1.6K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso | Flavio Bolsonaro 98% | — | $1.6K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Piauí | Lula 98% | — | $1.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Paraná | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.5% | — | $1.4K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará | Lula 69% | — | $1.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.5% | — | $1.3K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco | Lula 98.7% | — | $1.2K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Alagoas | Lula 92.5% | — | $1.2K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Tocantins | Flavio Bolsonaro 97.2% | — | $1.2K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais | Flavio Bolsonaro 88.5% | — | $1.1K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Maranhão | Lula 98.9% | — | $1.0K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Sergipe | Lula 98% | — | $973 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Goiás | Flavio Bolsonaro 98.5% | — | $918 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá | Flavio Bolsonaro 71.5% | — | $759 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Federal District | Flavio Bolsonaro 97% | — | $679 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Ceará | Lula 97.5% | — | $347 | Oct 26, 2026 |
4 smaller markets are not shown; all 44 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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People in these markets
Lula da Silva · Flávio Bolsonaro · Renan Santos · Ronaldo Caiado · Augusto Cury · Romeu Zema
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Brazil odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 44 live Brazil markets with $114.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? (Yes 18.5%), followed by Bank of Brazil decision in December? (25 bps decrease 46.5%), Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president? (By October 15 2.6%).
How many Brazil markets are open on Polymarket?
44 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Brazil odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/brazil/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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