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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 8, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is JD Vance at 20.6%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.2%, Jon Ossoff at 10.4%. The market has $713.22M in total volume and $504.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20.6% | +0.5 pts | $16.78M |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15.2% | +0.9 pts | $13.82M |
| Jon Ossoff | 10.4% | -0.4 pts | $5.89M |
| Marco Rubio | 9.0% | — | $12.64M |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.1% | +0.2 pts | $18.54M |
| Kamala Harris | 4.5% | +0.6 pts | $9.20M |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | — | $7.58M |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | — | $8.40M |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.8% | — | $14.29M |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% | — | $8.44M |
| Andy Beshear | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $19.39M |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.6% | — | $12.64M |
| Donald Trump | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $10.68M |
| James Talarico | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $7.62M |
| Mark Kelly | 1.4% | — | $754.5K |
39 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $713.22M · 24h volume $504.3K · Liquidity $60.39M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ JD Vance ■ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ■ Jon Ossoff · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: 2028 Presidential Election odds · World Elections odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is JD Vance at 20.6%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.2%, Jon Ossoff at 10.4%. The market has $713.22M in total volume and $504.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 8, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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