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France Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 32 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live France markets with $968.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? (Marine Le Pen 91%), Highest temperature in Paris on October 6? (25°C 53%).

France: elections, the government, the prime minister and the presidency. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live France markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen 42.5%-2.3 pts$901.0KApr 19, 2027
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Marine Le Pen 91%—$26.6KApr 19, 2027
Highest temperature in Paris on October 6?25°C 53%+7.5 pts$16.2KOct 6, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?30M+ 96.3%-0.2 pts$4.1KNov 1, 2026
Highest temperature in Paris on October 7?20°C 40.5%—$3.6KOct 7, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?30M+ 86.5%+8.5 pts$2.8KDec 1, 2026
Lowest temperature in Paris on October 6?9°C 49%+3.5 pts$2.0KOct 6, 2026
French Socialist Primary: First Round WinnerRaphaël Glucksmann 67.4%-28.4 pts$2.0KOct 10, 2026
EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?30M+ 81.5%—$1.7KJan 1, 2027
Macron out?By December 31, 2026 4.9%-1.2 pts$1.7KJan 1, 2027
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?Jean-Luc Mélenchon 94.2%+0.5 pts$1.6KJul 1, 2027
Socialist Party of France Presidential NomineeRaphael Glucksmann 85.5%-2.0 pts$1.3KOct 10, 2026
Next President of the National Rally in 2026?Jordan Bardella 97%+0.9 pts$675Jan 1, 2027
Lowest temperature in Paris on October 7?9°C or below 36%—$492Oct 7, 2026
Le Pen names non-Bardella PM?By April 17, 2027 37.9%+1.1 pts$343Apr 17, 2027
IEA asks France to release oil stocks?By December 31 63.5%—$339Jan 1, 2027
France United Left Primary WinnerCanceled 92.3%-0.2 pts$336Oct 12, 2026
French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd PlaceOlivier Faure 67.5%—$332Oct 10, 2026
2027 French Presidential Election: Attal vs PhilippeÉdouard Philippe 77%+5.0 pts$279Apr 18, 2027
Lecornu out as French PM?By December 31, 2026 31.5%+0.5 pts$135Oct 11, 2026
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally?By March 31 8.5%-2.0 pts$129Apr 1, 2027
French election called?By December 31, 2026 7.0%+1.8 pts$117Jan 1, 2027
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?François Hollande 70%-1.0 pts$109Apr 18, 2027
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Yes 48%+3.0 pts$108Dec 31, 2026
Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?Yes 29.5%+1.5 pts$87Oct 10, 2026
Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly?By October 31 2.1%-2.0 pts$50Nov 1, 2026
European military action against Iran?By December 31 6.0%—$42Dec 31, 2026
National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?Yes 99.9%++0.1 pts$12Dec 31, 2026
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen?By December 31 8.0%+0.5 pts$0Dec 31, 2026
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?Yes 9.0%—$0Apr 18, 2027
2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?Knafo 20%-1.0 pts$0Apr 18, 2027
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?Yes 4.8%—$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

Ségolène Royal · Mathilde Panot · Olivier Faure · Xavier Bertrand · François Bayrou · François Asselineau · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Élisabeth Borne · Michel Barnier · Manuel Bompard · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · Carole Delga · François Ruffin · Marine Tondelier

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Frequently asked questions

What are the France odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 32 live France markets with $968.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? (Marine Le Pen 91%), Highest temperature in Paris on October 6? (25°C 53%).

How many France markets are open on Polymarket?

32 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “France odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/france/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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