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Updated October 6, 2026 · 74 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 74 live Canada markets with $140.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Quebec General Election Winner (PQ 99.8%), followed by Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats? (<5 96.9%), Next Premier of British Columbia (David Eby 53.5%).
Canada: federal politics, the prime minister and elections. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quebec General Election Winner | PQ 99.8% | +3.5 pts | $54.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats? | <5 96.9% | +9.5 pts | $10.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Next Premier of British Columbia | David Eby 53.5% | — | $9.8K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: Second Place | PLQ 97% | -0.2 pts | $8.7K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Next Premier of Quebec | Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 99.1% | +0.9 pts | $8.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | Yes 2.6% | -2.1 pts | $7.5K | Oct 20, 2026 |
| Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner | Pete Fry 75.5% | +5.9 pts | $5.3K | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM) | 0.2 to 0.3% 34.5% | -12.0 pts | $5.3K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats? | 60-64 39% | +8.0 pts | $5.0K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs? | By December 31 39% | -2.5 pts | $4.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Quebec General Election: Third Place | PCQ 98.7% | +7.3 pts | $3.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Toronto Mayoral Election Winner | Olivia Chow 87.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.1K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| British Columbia General Election Winner | Conservative 49% | -7.5 pts | $2.8K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats? | 36-39 52% | +20.8 pts | $1.9K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| British Columbia General Election: 2nd Place | NDP 46.5% | -8.5 pts | $1.5K | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election: PCQ # Seats? | 17+ 57.4% | +6.3 pts | $824 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 52.5% | +9.0 pts | $675 | Dec 9, 2026 |
| B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner | Caroline Elliott 29.5% | +3.5 pts | $613 | Dec 31, 2027 |
| Bank of Canada Decision in October? | No Change 70.2% | +0.6 pts | $582 | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Charlottetown, PEI Mayoral Election Winner | Philip Brown 42% | -16.0 pts | $542 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Zac de Vries 57.5% | -3.0 pts | $389 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| New Westminster, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Patrick Johnstone 43.5% | -6.5 pts | $373 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Ottawa Mayoral Election Winner | Mark Sutcliffe 83% | +2.0 pts | $370 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? | Yes 7.5% | -1.0 pts | $359 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Mike O'Reilly 65.5% | — | $328 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Winnipeg Mayoral Election | Scott Gillingham 63.5% | +0.5 pts | $296 | Oct 29, 2026 |
| Delta, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Dylan Kruger 40% | -15.0 pts | $284 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Trump announces Canada tariff decrease? | By December 31 59.5% | -0.5 pts | $251 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Gary Sulz 54.5% | — | $250 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Waterloo, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Dorothy McCabe 54% | -12.5 pts | $248 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Sault Ste. Marie, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Joel Rowswell 46% | -13.0 pts | $220 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner | Lee Fairclough 46% | -5.0 pts | $202 | Nov 10, 2026 |
| Langley Township, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Jay Lundgren 34.5% | -2.0 pts | $160 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? | Yes 11.5% | — | $160 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Thunder Bay, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Trevor Giertuga 42% | +2.5 pts | $151 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| British Columbia General Election: 3rd Place | Greens 94.5% | +2.0 pts | $150 | Oct 24, 2026 |
| Oshawa, ON Mayoral Election Winner | Tito-Dante Marimpietri 35% | -19.5 pts | $121 | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Whistler, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Jack Crompton 84.5% | — | $116 | Oct 18, 2026 |
| Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner | Craig Hodge 79.5% | +2.0 pts | $110 | Oct 17, 2026 |
| Another Canada election called? | By December 31, 2026 5.3% | — | $110 | Jan 1, 2027 |
34 smaller markets are not shown; all 74 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 74 live Canada markets with $140.7K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Quebec General Election Winner (PQ 99.8%), followed by Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats? (<5 96.9%), Next Premier of British Columbia (David Eby 53.5%).
74 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/canada/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Canada odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/canada/">Canada odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/canada.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Canada odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/canada/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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