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Elon Musk odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 146 live markets · refreshed twice a day

Elon Musk appears in 146 live Polymarket markets with $62.28M traded. The biggest: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 at 0.1%; Presidential Election Winner 2028 at 0.1%; Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 at <0.1%. Prices are traders' implied chances, updated twice a day.

Every live market on Elon Musk

MarketChance24hVolumeEnds
Republican Presidential Nominee 20280.1%—$31.39M2028-11-08
Presidential Election Winner 20280.1%—$27.23M2028-11-08
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026<0.1%—$1.23M2027-04-01
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?29.9%+24.5 pts$207.6K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?0.8%-8.7 pts$149.0K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?0.1%-1.6 pts$134.7K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?8.5%-33.0 pts$119.6K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?59%+19.5 pts$99.2K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%-0.4 pts$93.5K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%-0.1 pts$59.4K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?19.5%+5.0 pts$57.1K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.4%+0.2 pts$54.0K2026-10-09
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?2.4%—$53.1K2027-01-01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?1.8%+1.2 pts$50.1K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%—$49.7K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%—$42.9K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?<0.1%—$37.7K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%—$36.9K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?7.2%+3.9 pts$36.7K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.1%+0.1 pts$36.7K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.4%-0.7 pts$34.9K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?32.5%+5.0 pts$34.0K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?<0.1%—$34.0K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.1%-0.1 pts$33.5K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?8.5%-8.0 pts$33.2K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%—$31.4K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.1%—$31.3K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in October 2026?7.0%-7.0 pts$29.4K2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.8%-1.7 pts$29.1K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?0.1%+0.1 pts$27.8K2026-10-13
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?18%+12.5 pts$26.8K2026-10-07
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?34.5%+5.0 pts$25.1K2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.2%—$23.4K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?<0.1%-0.2 pts$23.1K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?2.3%-4.8 pts$22.8K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?0.2%-0.2 pts$21.8K2026-10-09
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in October 2026?7.5%-2.0 pts$21.5K2026-11-01
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%—$21.1K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?<0.1%—$20.6K2026-10-06
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in October 2026?7.0%-4.5 pts$19.8K2026-11-01

For list markets (nominees, winners, appointments) the chance is Elon Musk's own outcome; for Yes/No questions it is the Yes price. Free JSON: /api/v1/people/elon-musk.json (CC BY 4.0).

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Cite this data

Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.

Polymarket View, “Elon Musk odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/person/elon-musk/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

What are Elon Musk's odds on Polymarket?

Elon Musk appears in 146 live Polymarket markets with $62.28M traded. The biggest: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 at 0.1%; Presidential Election Winner 2028 at 0.1%; Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 at . Prices are traders' implied chances, updated twice a day.

Which Polymarket market has the most money on Elon Musk?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: 0.1% with $31.39M traded, as of October 6, 2026.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data, refreshed twice a day. A price of 30% means traders pay 30 cents for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All people · All Polymarket odds