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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Deadline markets ask whether something happens by a series of dates — “by September 30”, “by December 31”, and so on. Each date is its own yes/no market, which resolves Yes if the event happens on or before it.
Later deadlines include the earlier ones, so their prices should be at least as high. The gap between two deadlines is the market's estimate that the event happens in between.
By March 31 72% · 5 live outcomes · $448.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of …”
By June 30, 2027 9.5% · 2 live outcomes · $284.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the …”
By December 31 14.5% · 3 live outcomes · $118.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Iran odds · Trump odds · Geopolitics odds
Work it out: deadline probability calculator.
Each deadline is a separate yes/no market that resolves Yes if the event, as defined in the rules, happens on or before that date; otherwise it resolves No when the date passes.
Because it includes every earlier date: if the event happens by September 30, it has also happened by December 31.
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