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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Some Polymarket markets bundle several conditions into one question, like a parlay: a "blue wave" market that needs one party to reach a House majority and a Senate seat count, a "Nothing Ever Happens" market that lists a set of events and turns on whether any of them happens, or joint outcomes such as who becomes Fed Chair together with where rates end up.
There are no separate legs to buy: the whole bundle trades as one market, priced directly by traders. When the conditions are independent its fair chance is close to the product of the separate chances; when they tend to happen together it is higher.
Yes 83% · 2 live outcomes · $5.7K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 …”
Pause-Hike-Pause 46.5% · 9 live outcomes · $4.3K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs …”
Yes 1.8% · 2 live outcomes · $2.0K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, wins control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and has a seat count of at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: 2026 Midterms odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds · Geopolitics odds
Work it out: combined probability calculator.
Polymarket lists ready-made markets that combine several conditions, tagged as parlays, such as a market that needs one party to win both chambers of Congress. You buy Yes or No on the whole bundle like any other market.
Multiply the chances of the separate conditions if they are independent; if they tend to happen together, the combined chance is higher than that product. The combined probability calculator does the arithmetic.
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