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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Election markets ask who wins a race, which party controls a chamber, or by how much a candidate wins. Winner markets list each candidate as its own yes/no outcome; party-control markets usually have two or three outcomes.
Prices react to polls, debates and early returns, which makes them a live read of how traders see the race — a different signal from polling averages.
Marine Le Pen 42.5% · 42 live outcomes · $902.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate …”
Democrats Sweep 65.5% · 5 live outcomes · $561.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party …”
JD Vance 20.6% · 54 live outcomes · $501.4K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: 2028 Presidential Election odds · 2026 Midterms odds · World Elections odds
Work it out: poll margin to win probability calculator.
On the result as defined in the rules — typically the certified winner or the call by named sources — with specific handling for recounts and disputes.
No. They are prices set by traders risking money; they often move with polls but also react to other news.
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Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice.