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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: June 7, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lorenia Valles Sampedro at 57.5%, followed by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas at 15%, Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez at 11.7%. The market has $43.8K in total volume and $269 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenia Valles Sampedro | 57.5% | -1.0 pts | $28.4K |
| Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas | 15% | -2.6 pts | $2.0K |
| Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez | 11.7% | -3.6 pts | $1.8K |
| Javier Lamarque Cano | 3.2% | — | $4.3K |
| Natalia Rivera Grijalva | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $460 |
| Ernesto Gándara Camou | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $681 |
| Sylvana Beltrones Sánchez | 1.1% | -0.5 pts | $514 |
| Lilly Téllez García | 0.6% | — | $463 |
| Manuel Scott Sánchez | 0.5% | — | $441 |
| Célida Teresa López Cárdenas | 0.4% | — | $855 |
| Froylán Gámez Gamboa | 0.4% | — | $418 |
| Omar del Valle Colosio | 0.3% | — | $482 |
| Rogelio Díaz Brown | 0.3% | — | $419 |
| Damián Zepeda Vidales | 0.3% | — | $408 |
| Víctor Hugo Celaya | 0.3% | — | $408 |
4 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $43.8K · 24h volume $269 · Liquidity $245.8K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Lorenia Valles Sampedro ■ Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas ■ Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Sonora on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Sonora gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Sonora and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Sonora and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Mexico odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Lorenia Valles Sampedro at 57.5%, followed by Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas at 15%, Antonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez at 11.7%. The market has $43.8K in total volume and $269 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 7, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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