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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: June 7, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Adrián de la Garza Santos at 28.5%, followed by Mariana Rodríguez Cantú at 27%, Clara Luz Flores Carrales at 15.8%. The market has $58.0K in total volume and $186 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián de la Garza Santos | 28.5% | — | $11.7K |
| Mariana Rodríguez Cantú | 27% | +0.1 pts | $17.2K |
| Clara Luz Flores Carrales | 15.8% | — | $5.6K |
| Waldo Fernández González | 10.8% | +0.5 pts | $754 |
| Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas | 8.8% | — | $3.9K |
| Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo | 6.7% | +0.5 pts | $3.6K |
| Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla | 4.9% | +0.2 pts | $792 |
| Jesús Alberto Elizondo | 4.2% | +1.6 pts | $431 |
| Félix Arratia Cruz | 3.4% | — | $411 |
| Carlos de la Fuente Flores | 2.1% | +0.4 pts | $374 |
| Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez | 2.1% | — | $664 |
| Martha Herrera González | 1.9% | — | $726 |
| Andrés Mijes Llovera | 1.8% | — | $1.7K |
| Miguel Flores Serna | 1.8% | — | $654 |
| Daniel Carrillo Martínez | 1.2% | -0.1 pts | $5.0K |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $58.0K · 24h volume $186 · Liquidity $260.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Adrián de la Garza Santos ■ Mariana Rodríguez Cantú ■ Clara Luz Flores Carrales · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nuevo León on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nuevo León and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nuevo León and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Mexico odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Adrián de la Garza Santos at 28.5%, followed by Mariana Rodríguez Cantú at 27%, Clara Luz Flores Carrales at 15.8%. The market has $58.0K in total volume and $186 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 7, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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