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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Juan Reyes Mejía González at 18.5%, followed by Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar at 12.5%, Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan at 12%. The market has $184.5K in total volume and $899 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Audias Flores-Silva (settled) | 100% | +23.0 pts | $5.9K |
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | 18.5% | +7.0 pts | $35.4K |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 12.5% | -3.5 pts | $6.9K |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | 12% | -3.6 pts | $5.1K |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | 10.5% | — | $1.8K |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 9.0% | +1.5 pts | $61.4K |
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 8.8% | -2.5 pts | $8.4K |
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | 6.5% | -4.0 pts | $59.6K |
Total volume $184.5K · 24h volume $899 · Liquidity $31.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Juan Reyes Mejía González ■ Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar ■ Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Juan Reyes Mejía González at 18.5%, followed by Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar at 12.5%, Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan at 12%. The market has $184.5K in total volume and $899 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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